Filip Tomic
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The NBA returns with a bang tonight as 22 teams hit the NBA hardwood on a Friday. I’m focusing on the LA Lakers vs Milwaukee Bucks clash, tipping off at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. I have prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
As always you can find our picks on the side and total for all games tonight on our NBA Predictions page.
Let’s dive in!
Under 228.5 total points (-110)
Anthony Davis to score 20+ points (-260)
LeBron James 3+ made threes (-135)
Jrue Holiday to record 6+ assists (-180)
Same Game Parlay odds: +760
Under 228.5 total points (-110)
The 228.5 projected point total sounds a bit high for me here, considering these 2 teams rank 1st and 7th in defensive rating through 20 games. Head-to-head games have also not been kind to bettors backing the over with the last 7 of 10 meetings cashing on the under. The 2 teams are combining to average 221.8 points per game during that stretch, so even if they reach their averages we are still staying under the total. Milwaukee gets Khris Middleton back, implementing at 20 point per game scorer into the offense after 20 games played can sometimes disrupt your chemistry a bit. If we disregard their games at San Antonio, the Lakers haven’t really had many great offensive performances on the road this season. They rank only 17th best in points per game scoring 110 a night away from home, in their last 4 visits to Fiserv Forum they totaled just 102, 113, 104 and 101 points. With the last 5 meetings in this building all going under the total, I think backing that is the best way to approach tonight’s game.
Read our LA Lakers vs Milwaukee Bucks written preview
Anthony Davis to score 20+ points (-260)
Getting to 20 points shouldn’t be an issue for Anthony Davis here, despite all the mentioned Lakers’ struggles when scoring on the road. AD has been playing at a high level for a while now, he is averaging 29.3 points per game over hie last 9 outings while shooting 60% from the field. His 3-point shot isn’t falling, but that’s okay as he can be lethal from the mid-range and from inside the paint instead. The last time he faced the Bucks he finished with 22 points and for his career he is averaging 26.2 points against them in 18 games. In those 18 games he cleared the 20 point line a total of 15 times. I think this is a pretty safe bet, so let’s cross our fingers he’s able to feast tonight.
LeBron James 3+ made threes (-135)
Another player the Lakers are expecting a lot from tonight is of course LeBron James. In his last 5 games he is averaging 28.4 points per game his 3-point shot has been exceptionally good during that stretch at 48.8% efficiency. So far in the month of November he is averaging 2.8 makes from distance, while clearing this line in 3 games in a row. Having to go up against Khris Middleton isn’t a good thing most of the time, but right now it should benefit James. Middleton hasn’t played a single minute so far this season, so it could take him some time to get his legs under him, I fully expect James to take advantage of that. In his last 7 games vs the Bucks LeBron has totaled 3, 6, 1, 3, 3, 3 and 6 threes. The Bucks rank 9th worst as a home team in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing 36.8% of shots to be made, so look for LeBron to assert himself from distance early.
Jrue Holiday to record 6+ assists (-180)
And finally, I have Jrue Holiday to dish out 6 assists tonight as he manages to point-guard position once again for Milwaukee. He has recorded at least 6 assists in 16 straight games against the Lakers, dating back to the 2016-17 season when he was with the Pelicans. For his career he is averaging 7.6 dimes per game vs LA, which makes them one of his favorite opponents to go up against. Holiday’s numbers have been fairly consistent this season, during the month of November he is averaging 6.6 assists per game. He has cleared this line 6 times in 10 games played, so hopefully he can add to that number tonight. The Lakers allow the 21st-most assists per game this season at 26.1 per game. That number has gone up to 27.7 over their last 3, and with the addition of Middleton, Holiday has another option to pass the ball to on offense. There is no doubt in my mind he will get to 6 assists.
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