Filip Tomic
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Denver celebrated a massive win in Game 1, but now they have to confirm their dominance as we head into Game 2 at Ball Arena. Will the Joker and company go up 2-0 or can the Lakers respond? Watch tonight’s game from 8:30 pm ET on ESPN. To add to the drama, I’ve prepared a Lakers vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay which you can find below. Don’t forget to also check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for every single game of the Conference Finals. But for now, let’s dive into my SGP.
Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-112)
Nikola Jokic over 1.5 made threes (+152)
Aaron Gordon over 5.5 rebounds (-136)
Lakers vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay odds: +616
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Denver Nuggets -5.5 over LA Lakers (-112)
The Lakers shot almost 55% from the field as a team, got 40 points from Anthony Davis and a near triple-double from LeBron James and yet they still lost the game. Wasting efforts like that will prove to be costly at this stage of the postseason. Pressure is on them now to respond, but I’m not sure if the Nuggets will allow that. They’re now 41-7 SU at home this season and as the favorites they’ve won 51 of 70 games total. After opening as 6-point favorites on Tuesday, the spread is now down to 5.5 points which is a number they’ve cleared in 3 straight home games against the Lakers.
LA will make a couple of tweaks to their game plan, but even in that area, I give the Nuggets a slight edge as they have the more experienced head coach. With just 1 win in 6 road games at Ball Arena, I’m just not feeling the Lakers right now. Take Denver to win a 10th straight home game and cover the spread.
Be sure to check our full LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets predictions
Nikola Jokic over 1.5 made threes (+152)
I’ve followed the NBA for almost 25 years now and the performance Jokic put up in Game 1 was something I’ve not seen very often. He dominated the game on both ends right from the start and even though AD scored 40, the talk of the game was Jokic and his triple-double performance. His efficiency from the floor was unreal at 70% — he also hit all 3 of his attempts from downtown. That was the 3rd time in his last 4 games he connected on at least 2 threes and for +152 odds I feel like that’s a really solid bet for Game 2 as well.
As good as he was in the series opener, Davis did block a couple of his shots on the inside, so I expect Jokic to roam around the perimeter a bit more often than he normally does. Denver shot the lights out from deep in Game 1, scoring on almost 47% of their attempts. In the past 3 games the Lakers are allowing 35.7% threes, the 2-time MVP will know how to make the most out of that.
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Aaron Gordon over 5.5 rebounds (-136)
Although Gordon didn’t put up a monster stat line in Game 1, the Nuggets were still +11 when he was on the floor. He brings much-needed energy, effort and durability, plus the Lakers will struggle with his physicality on the inside as they only have AD for rim protection. Only 3 rebounds is very unusual for Gordon and prior to Tuesday’s game, he was on a run of at least 6 rebounds in 9 of 11 postseason games.
Both teams shot extremely well from the floor, so we saw a relatively low-rebounding game. I’m expecting each of them to cool off a bit and focus more on the defensive end in tonight’s game, so Gordon’s rebounding numbers should increase. Jokic caught 21 rebounds in Game 1 and a decent chunk of those normally ends up in Gordon’s hands. As good as Joker is I don’t think he can repeat that performance tonight. Time for Gordon to step up and assert himself here.
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