Filip Tomic
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It’s a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals as the Lakers and Nuggets tip things off in Game 1 at Ball Arena on Tuesday. Catch the game live from 8:30 pm ET on ESPN, and to add some extra excitement, I’ve prepared a Lakers vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay which you can find below. Don’t forget to also check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for every conference finals matchup. But for now, let’s get into my SGP.
LA Lakers ML (+180)
Anthony Davis to score 25+ points (+140)
LeBron James to record 1+ blocks (-175)
Same Game Parlay odds: +742
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LA Lakers ML over Denver Nuggets (+180)
Since the Nuggets have home-court advantage here, winning on the road is a must for the Lakers, just like it was in the first 2 rounds. They started off the Memphis series with a 16-point road win, while against Golden State they came out on top by 5 points. Game 1 might be their best chance of stealing one on the road, as the teams aren’t too familiar with each other, so maybe LA can use that to their advantage.
Denver is undefeated in 8 straight home games, but all the pressure is on them in this game and this will be their biggest challenge so far this postseason. Nikola Jokic averaged a modest 23.3 points against LA during the regular season and he will be tested here as Anthony Davis has the length advantage. The Lakers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games and they head into this one with a run of 15 wins in their last 20 games overall. These odds on a Lakers win are just too good to pass up here, so let’s back the underdogs to pull off the upset to start the series.
Anthony Davis to score 25+ points (+140)
The success formula for the Lakers is very simple – when AD plays well, so do the Lakers. But Davis isn’t the team’s leader in points per game this postseason run. He’s actually 2nd behind LeBron James, averaging 21.2 points per game. A big reason for that is a lack of consistency on his part, but he’s slowly turning things around and has scored 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. He has upped his scoring in Round 2 compared to Round 1 and I believe his form will only go up from here on the offensive end.
Davis averaged only 18.3 points per game in 3 regular season games against Denver, but he got injured in one of those games early so his average was significantly lowered by that. He’s scored 20+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against them. We all know Nikola Jokic isn’t exactly the most versatile defender in the league and the Nuggets don’t have any better solutions to put on Davis in this series. AD is a matchup nightmare for far superior defenders than Jokic, so I’m expecting him to put up big numbers in this series, starting from Game 1 on Tuesday.
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LeBron James to record 1+ blocks (-175)
LeBron’s performances during this postseason run have been truly remarkable, especially when you consider he is in his 20th season. The scoring isn’t on the level it once was, but he’s compensating for that by putting in the effort on the defensive end. Right now he’s on a run of 4 consecutive games with at least 1 block recorded and he’s failed to record at least 1 block in just 2 of 12 games.
The Lakers have relied a ton on defense to win games this postseason and they have the best defensive rating so far through 12 games played at 106.5. Game 1 is expected to be a higher-scoring one with the projected total being set at 222.5 points, so there will be plenty of opportunities for James to get at least 1 block. Who knows, it could very well be one of his signature chase-down rejections which are always fun to see.
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