NBA Heat vs Nuggets Best Bets for Thursday, June 1 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

It’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Denver as the Nuggets host the Miami Heat. The Nuggets last played on May 22 as they completed a sweep of the Lakers. Miami, of course, needed 7 games to advance after giving away a 3-0 series lead to the Boston Celtics. Denver has owned Miami, winning and covering in 9 of their last 10 meetings. The only game that Miami won and covered was in the bubble in August, 2020. The Nuggets offense is the most consistent one Miami has faced in this postseason, averaging 116.4 points per game on 49% shooting and 38.6% from beyond the arc. The Nuggets will also have a considerable advantage on the boards and with points in the paint, where they are outscoring Miami by 10 on the season.

This is a huge number that oddsmakers have put up. Denver is certainly capable of covering it, especially at home, but there’s only one game script that gets them there and that’s a blowout. We’ve seen games like that in the postseason where teams who are trailing big late in third quarter try to make one last push in the early fourth but end up quitting by around the 8-minute mark and pulling their starters. However, if Miami is making threes, which they have been at a 39% clip this postseason, it’s hard not to envision them staying in this game. The Heat have had 3 days in Denver to get adjusted to the altitude and it feels like a spot where Miami will continue to surprise everyone and keep this close. I don’t think Miami will win, but this is too many points for me to lay with Denver. Heat plus the points.

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The Nuggets are the highest-scoring team in the NBA this postseason with the exception of the Bucks, who played only 5 games and had a 138-point game inflating their numbers. The Heat have won all 3 of their previous Game 1s with high-scoring and great shooting. Denver’s defense is statistically similar to Boston’s and if they allow Miami to hit and make a lot of threes, this should be a high-scoring affair.

Oddsmakers opened up around 219, which is a number I felt was a little low. There may be some built-in “let down” by the Heat baked into that line after an emotional Game 7 against Boston. There is also the “rest vs rust” factor for the Nuggets who haven’t played in 9 days. I’m not sure we will see either of those come into play. If Miami gets to around 105, I think this total goes over. If Denver is winning in a blowout, that’s the scenario where I see an under because the pace could slow dramatically. I think the Heat will show up in the opener and help to push this total over.