Game 5 in the NBA Finals could be the last matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat, with Denver just a home win away from the championship, leading the series 3-1. After going 2-0 in Game 3, and again in Game 4 I have 2 more best bets to make for Monday night’s game.
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Nuggets -5 first-half spread (-110)
Available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing
The series shifts back to Denver for Game 5 of the NBA Finals where the Nuggets have a chance to close out their first NBA title in front of their home crowd. Oddsmakers have laid a heavy number, installing the Nuggets as a 9-point favorite at home. As I’ve said throughout this series, Miami can’t stop Denver’s offense. The Nuggets have had their way with the Heat and had it not been for the 4th quarter of Game 2, when Miami shot 69% from the field and 55% from three, the Heat would have been swept in this series. For further comparison, the only other quarter in which the Heat outshot and outscored the Nuggets was the 1st quarter of Game 4 when the Nuggets went 31.9% from the field and Miami was only able to outscore them by a single point. Denver’s totals could likely be even higher. They’ve led by at least 12 points before the 4th quarter in every game of this series. They’ve throttled back a lot late in games. They scored 108 in Game 4 with Nikola Jokic playing only 37 minutes and scoring just 23 points, which is 10 points below his average coming into that game.
The Heat’s offense is lifeless at this point if they aren’t making three-pointers. They’ve regressed to who they were for the 82 games of the regular season. The Heat have failed to score 100 points in 5 of their last 8 games and are shooting just 43% from the field over that stretch. In fact, in the 3 games that they broke 100, they shot better than 45% from deep. In the other 5 games they shot less than 40%. Since the beginning of the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston, the Heat have broken 100 only once and have shot less than 45% from beyond the arc. So, without a serious uptick in 3-point shooting, the Heat have no chance. This is a lot of points to lay and if Game 5 plays out like the previous wins for the Nuggets, they will be in cruise control in the 4th quarter, leaving the back door open. Denver has led by at least 4 at the half in every game of this series and in both games at home they scored at least 57 points in the first half while shooting better than 50% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc. Denver will be motivated to win the whole thing at home and not have to travel back to Miami, and a fast start can help them get there. Without Miami making threes early, I expect Denver to be in full control for the first 24 minutes.
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Nuggets first-half team total over 55.5 (-115)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Nuggets are on the verge of an NBA title and if they want to close things out in Game 5, a fast start will be necessary. That’s why I’m looking to the Nuggets team total over 55.5 in 1st half. In the 1st half of Game 1, the Nuggets shot 59% from the field and 45% from 3-point range. In Game 2, they shot 50% from the field and just under 44% from three. They scored 59 and 57 points respectively. They are averaging 56 first-half points for the series. Denver had played 10 home games this postseason and they have shot less than 45% from the field just twice, but still won both games. The Nuggets have scored fewer than 105 points total in just 2 of their 19 postseason games this year.
The Heat shot 37.5% from the field in the first half of Game 1 and 44.2% from the field in Game 2 and the Nuggets led by at least 6 at the half in both games. Miami’s shooting has gone in the tank in the Finals. After hitting 47% of their shots from the field and 43% of their 3-pointers against Boston, the Heat are shooting just 42% from the field and 36% from three. Miami has very little chance to keep this close without making a lot of threes. If they are doing that early, they can keep things tight. But that also probably helps the Nuggets to push the pace and keep scoring. Miami doesn’t have an answer defensively for Denver and the Nuggets should go over 55.5 in the first half.
Check out our Game 5 Same Game Parlay, NBA player props and first basket scorer bets for tonight
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