Filip Tomic
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The All-Star Weekend festivities are over and the NBA regular season resumes with a 9-game slate this Thursday. I’m focusing on the Warriors vs Lakers clash tipping off on TNT from 10 pm ET. Continue reading below to see my Same Game Parlay for that game.
Visit our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for all 9 Thursday games! Let’s dive into our SGP for this matchup.
Under 238 points (-110)
Jordan Poole 4+ made threes (+110)
LeBron James over 7.5 rebounds (-102)
Same Game Parlay odds: +701
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Under 238 points (-110)
The recent trades made by the Lakers have significantly lowered the scoring in their games. In 3 of their last 4 we saw under 223 points which is massive for a team that is no stranger to games finishing in the high 230s or even the 240s on a regular basis. The total has gone under in 5 of their last 7 played at home, where they are 13-15 on the O/U this season. I’m expecting the under to land once again here, judging by the two meetings so far this season which saw only 232 and 212 points I think that’s a really solid bet.
Over the last 10 meetings we’ve seen an average of just 225.5 points per game, plus with the likes of Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins both potentially missing this game for the Warriors they might struggle to find points. The Lakers do get LeBron James back, which should increase the pace a bit, but the memo is pretty clear for LA here, when they play defense they can hope to have success and I think for the remaining 23 games they’ll improve dramatically on that end of the floor.
Also check out our Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ers Same Game Parlay at +951 odds!
Jordan Poole 4+ made threes (+110)
He hasn’t had the most efficient numbers in head-to-head games vs the Lakers this season, but Thursday’s game is a solid opportunity to redeem himself. Poole is averaging 3.4 threes per game in the month of February, that’s up from 2.8 in the month before. No Steph Curry has had an impact on his numbers, mostly on the positive side as he now has way more responsibility on the offensive end. He’s on a run of 3 straight games with at least 3 threes, while over his last 7 he’s averaging 3.7 threes, clearing this line a total of 3 times.
The Lakers defense has undergone a huge overhaul before the trade deadline, so it might take some time for them to figure things out. As a result over their last 3 games teams have averaged 36.2% of made shots from the perimeter, ranking them in the bottom half of the NBA. With Curry and Wiggins out, everything should go through Poole here and he’s good enough to answer the call in my opinion.
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LeBron James over 7.5 rebounds (-102)
It was all smiles for LeBron during the All-Star weekend despite his team losing the game on Sunday. He won’t be phased too much by that, now the real deal begins as he tries to lead his Lakers to a playoff berth. Replacing Russell Westbrook with D’Angelo Russell has been very beneficial for LA, they finally have a traditional point guard of high quality bringing up the ball. That helps LeBron in so many ways, he’s able to concentrate more on other things that are beneficial to his team.
Rebounding is something that he’s been working on quite a lot lately, over his last 6 games he’s averaging 8 boards per game. He had one of his best rebounding games against Golden State in the first meeting of the season where he collected 15 of them, so getting to 8 shouldn’t be too much of an issue here. The biggest weakness of the Warriors defense this season has been rebounding, they rank only 24th in the NBA allowing an average of 53.1 boards per game. Because of that I’m looking for LeBron and AD to have solid numbers in this game.
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