NBA Finals MVP Odds, Predictions and Series Props for Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

The Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP award is the second most prestigious individual award in the league just behind the regular season MVP. It is given out to the best player in the Finals and has only been given to a losing player once in NBA history (Jerry West, 1969). The award is a talking point for debates when discussing the greatest players of all time. Going into this years Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets, neither team has a previous Finals MVP on the roster. Also, be sure to check out our NBA Finals series predictions!

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NBA Finals MVP Contenders and Odds

Nikola Jokic (-360)

Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The Nuggets (-450) are heavy favorites in the series and thus, Nikola Jokic is also a heavy to win the award (-360). From a betting perspective, I can’t reasonably give out something with so much juice, but I’m happy to explore other options that may represent value to the casual fan. From a percentage standpoint, -360 is the equivalent of 78%. Jokic will likely average close to a triple-double considering that is what he averaged against Miami in the regular season. Miami’s zone was the story of the Eastern Conference Finals, but for Jokic, it could be a field day. He would plant himself at the fouline and have limitless options offensively: put the ball on the ground, find open shooters on the wing, or simply pull-up from 15 feet. Miami may actually be helpless in this regard. I do believe the Nuggets will win in 5. I believe Jokic will win the Finals MVP, but am I 78% certain? No.

Verdict: Pass.

Jamal Murray (+1400)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Since I’m backing the Nuggets to win the series, the next logical choice would be from the winning team. (If LeBron didn’t win the Finals MVP in 2015 when Andre Iguodola won it for “holding” the King to 36-12-8, no one will). Murray averaged 27-6-5 in the Western Conference Finals and had two monster performances in Games 2 & 3 to keep the series from ever going 5 games. I know Jokic was the better player in that series, but if Murray was given the Magic Johnson Trophy for Western Conference Finals MVP, I would not have pushed back much. Murray has the potential to average 30 PPG this series and have explosive moments. Jokic doesn’t want the spotlight, does not desire arbitrary awards, and only cares about winning.

If he turned in a 25-10-8 series resulting in a Nuggets win, he would be equally as happy. There is precedent for Finals MVP not going to the “premier” player in the series: Andre Iguodola (2015), Kawhi Leonard (2014), Tony Parker (2007), Dwayne Wade (2006), Joe Dumars (1989), James Worth (1988) have all won the award and outshined a bigger name on the big stage.

Verdict: Bet. 0.25U

Jimmy Butler (+330)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

If you can find Butler’s odds to be better than the Heat striaght up to win the series and you believe the Heat can pull off the upset, that would be a good spot to pick up value. I am currently seeing both Heat outright and Jimmy Butler Finals MVP odds to be matching across the board on 3 different books, so not much to discuss here. I love Jimmy. I’ll be rooting for him to pull this off and have his name thrown in with the top guys in the league on a more permanent basis, but I just see Miami as outmatched. Round 1 against Milwaukee had Giannis only play two full games, Round 2 against a Knicks team that was limited offensively, and the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston went 7 despite a Celtics team that was wildly inconsistent from game to game and outcoached.

Verdict: Pass.

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NBA Finals Best Prop Bets

If the MVP market bores you as much as it does me this year, you’ll want to look for alternative props that keep you glued to your seat the entire series. There are a few that caught my eye and similar to the Super Bowl, these are only offered for the NBA Finals.

Any Player to Break Robert Horry’s Single-Game Finals Steals Record (7): Yes (+7500)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

This one seems improperly priced. Jimmy Butler is the prime candidate. Ferocious defender who will sag off Aaron Gordon to play the passing lanes and help with Adebayo with Jokic in that zone. Butler’s postseason high this year is 6 and he had 4 versus Denver in the regular season. For 5$, you could do a lot worse.

Buzzer Beater in the Finals (FG to Give Team Win as Time Expires): Yes (+3000)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

This obviously happened in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. We saw Jokic hit a halftime buzzer beater over Anthony Davis in the Western Conference Finals. Miami is scrappy enough to keep these games relatively close and we can hope to see at least one buzzer beater attempt in the series. Denver all season has been the most efficient offense in the NBA and consistency get open looks. If one of these games comes down to the last basket, I’m confident Denver can get a quality shot attempt off and at 30-1, that’s all we can ask for.

Nikola Jokic to have a Triple-Double in every Finals game: Yes (+1600)

Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Jokic had a TD in 1/2 regular season games versus MIA this season and his one miss finished with 8 rebounds. Miami simply does not have any big men behind Adebayo to throw at Jokic, so he should be expected to a big series. He’s already passed Wilt Chamberlain for most TD’s in a postseason with 8. Can he do it in 4-straight? Miami’s zone should leave shooters for Jokic to find, it will be up to them to knock down the open looks. The odds imply a 5.9% chance of this event happening. However, if we use the Game 1 odds of (-125) for Jokic to have a TD and compound that over 4 games (yes, I’m predicting a sweep), the odds should be 9.5% or +953. Point is, we’re getting some value here if it is a sweep. If the series goes 5, we are getting an accurate line at +1600. I’ll roll the dice that Denver sweeps and Jokic TDs all the way through.

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