Filip Tomic
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Denver has a chance to become the first team to move on to the Conference Finals with a win tonight as they head into Phoenix with a 3-2 lead. Tip-off is live from 10 pm ET on ESPN, and after just 1 leg let down our Nuggets vs Suns Same Game Parlay in Game 5, I’m going after it with another one in Game 6. Don’t forget to check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for both of tonight’s games, including Celtics vs 76ers, but for now let’s dive into my SGP.
Denver Nuggets ML (+128)
Aaron Gordon 1+ made threes (-140)
Kevin Durant to record 2+ blocks (+145)
Same Game Parlay odds: +807
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Denver Nuggets ML over Phoenix Suns (+128)
The Nuggets managed to pull away in a decisive 3rd quarter which they won by 14 points and ultimately came out on top 118-102 in Game 5. Nikola Jokic continued putting up big numbers with another triple-double, and he has been lighting up the Suns in this series. Phoenix will once again be without Chris Paul, and with Devin Booker cooling off there are a lot of reasons to be concerned if you’re a Suns fan heading into Game 6.
Having Kevin Durant on the team does help as he’s averaging 30.2 points per game when facing elimination, but it will take a complete team effort to beat these Nuggets and I’m just not sure the Suns have enough depth. They have to play a perfect game offensively in order to win here and hope that Jokic and the Nuggets have an off night. Denver was close to winning in both Game 3 and Game 4, and I think they finally do it on the road in Game 6 and close this thing out. If not, then you have to like them doing so in Game 7. I’ll take the Nuggets on the money line here.
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Aaron Gordon 1+ made threes (-140)
Although his numbers aren’t the flashiest, Aaron Gordon has put together a really solid series for the Nuggets here as the 3rd or even 4th scoring option at times. Gordon does a lot more for this team than scoring, in fact he has the best +/- through the first 5 games at +71 when on the floor. He logs an average of 37.8 minutes per game as well, which is 3rd on the team behind only Jokic and Murray. His three-point shot is often overlooked, but that doesn’t deter him from letting it fly from deep.
So far in this series, Gordon has failed to make a three only once and that was in Game 3, when he went 0-for-3. He’s cleared this line in 7 of 10 games so far this postseason, and after shooting 33.3% from three in the first round, he has upped that to almost 43% in the second round. Phoenix has shown signs of slowing down in terms of defending the perimeter and Denver is averaging 38% from three in the last 3 games. With Gordon’s ability to shoot and bully his way on the inside, I don’t expect the Suns to have a solution for him on defense.
We also have a Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers Same Game Parlay at +689 odds!
Kevin Durant to record 2+ blocks (+145)
Speaking of solutions on defense, KD has been one for the Suns even though he’s also contributing a ton on the other end, putting up 30.8 points per game. Durant has recorded at least 1 block in every single game in this series, and in 3 of the 5 games he’s blocked 2 or more shots. Ayton’s struggles are well documented in this series and the Suns have a point differential of -59 with him on the floor, which effectively means that Durant has now become the main rim protector in this series. Over the last 3 games the Nuggets are crushing the Suns down low, scoring an average of 58 points per game, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Durant to block a couple of shots here.
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