Filip Tomic
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It’s a potential Western Conference semifinal preview tonight in Denver as the #1 seeded Nuggets take on the #4 seeded Suns. Will the Suns stay undefeated with Kevin Durant in their lineup? Or will the MVP Nikola Jokic respond following his team’s loss to Houston? Tip-off is at 10:00 pm ET on TNT and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
Don’t forget to check our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for every game on Thursday’s slate.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Phoenix Suns 1-10 win margin (+185)
Devin Booker over 26.5 points (-115)
Deandre Ayton to record 10+ rebounds (+100)
Parlay odds: +999
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Phoenix Suns 1-10 win margin (+185)
The Suns opened as 4.5-point favorites, but now that number is up to a whopping 10 points, which indicates there has been quite a lot of action on Phoenix. Incorporating Durant to their team has been a flawless experience so far, and the Suns are 7-0 with him in the lineup. They’re on a 6-game win streak after winning the last 4 games since Durant’s return from injury. They’re going up against the Nuggets who just clinched the #1 seed in the West for the first time in franchise history. The Nuggets’ form has been up and down over the past few games, but a 21-point loss to the Houston Rockets with Nikola Jokic back in the lineup wasn’t a good look. These teams played each other 6 days ago and Phoenix came out on top 100-93. All 3 of their meetings this season have been won by the home team, and this could very well be a second round matchup in the Western Conference playoffs, so tonight’s game is a preview of what’s to come. I expect both teams to be sharp, but in the end Durant can be the difference-maker. Phoenix is 7-3 SU/ATS in the last 10 head-to-head, while also winning the last 4 meetings at Footprint Center. Expect a close game, with the Suns coming out on top by single digits.
Read our full preview for Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns
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Devin Booker over 26.5 points (-115)
The return of KD from injury has lowered the production of Devin Booker over the past 7 games or so, but he is still putting up solid numbers. In his last 10 games he has scored 28.8 points per game on an efficient 51.3% from the field. A couple of poor shooting nights from three has ruined his percentage from downtown, but with Denver being only a mediocre team when it comes to defending the perimeter on the road there’s a chance Booker can catch fire here. The presence of Durant makes everyone’s life on offense easier as opponents are focused on slowing him down. Booker has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 outings, including against the Nuggets about a week ago when he scored 27. If this is a close game I wouldn’t be surprised if Booker goes for 30 points.
Thursday’s NBA mega parlay has +911 odds!
Deandre Ayton to record 10+ rebounds (+100)
Deandre Ayton always takes the matchup with Nikola Jokic seriously. He has averaged 11.5 rebounds per game in 12 career games against the MVP and despite playing only 28 minutes the last time he played Denver he still managed to get 10 rebounds. The Suns aren’t the deepest of teams at the center position, so on most nights Ayton will be their main man when it comes to cleaning the glass. He has successfully cleared this line in 3 straight games despite averaging less than 30 minutes per game. A lot will depend on him moving forward, so a solid performance against Jokic would be a huge confidence-booster. Denver has been a disaster on the boards over their last 3 games, allowing an NBA-high 63 rebounds per game. They’re also the team with the 5th-fewest amount of rebounds collected per game on the road this season, grabbing 48.1 a night. All those numbers are in favor of Ayton, hopefully he can step up and clean up a few misses by the Nuggets.
Check our best NBA player prop bets for Thursday
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