Filip Tomic
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Thursday brings us just 2 NBA games, and our focus is on the matchup taking place in Oklahoma City where the Thunder and Nuggets clash for the 2nd time this season. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET, continue reading below to see my Same Game Parlay.
Don’t forget to check our NBA predictions for the Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic game, as well.
Let’s dive into the Nuggets vs Thunder match-up now though.
Oklahoma City Thunder 1 – 10 Win Margin (+300)
Michael Porter Jr. 3+ Made Threes (-154)
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-136)
Parlay odds: +1149
Oklahoma City Thunder 1-10 win margin (+300)
Denver travels to OKC to face the Thunder in a surprisingly difficult matchup. OKC just beat Orlando at home for its 3rd straight win at Paycom Center and 4th in a row overall, while the Nuggets have been off since Sunday when they gave the struggling Los Angeles Lakers their first win of the year. Denver is one of the most confusing teams so far this season, all three of their losses have been by double-digits on the road. They did beat the Thunder 122-117 in the 1st meeting of the season 10 days ago, but a lot of things have changed since. Oklahoma City has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 home games, plus they are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs Western Conference opponents. Denver’s away form is concerning; until it figures things out on the road I am betting against this team. Back the Thunder in another close game.
Be sure to check out our full preview for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Michael Porter Jr. 3+ made threes (-154)
While Jamal Murray is still struggling to find his way back after a long layoff after injury, Michael Porter Jr. seems to be doing just fine dealing with his comeback. He has scored over 20 points in 2 of his last 4 games and for the season is averaging 18.5 per game while playing just 29 minutes a night. One of his best games of the season was against the Thunder, when he had 22 on the night — including 5 threes made on 10 attempts. He is averaging 3.8 makes from the perimeter this season on almost 49% efficiency, positioning himself among the league leaders in that category. The Thunder have always been a good matchup for him; he has drained 3 or more threes in 3 of the last 4 meetings and he is shooting almost 47% against them from downtown in 6 career games. I’m expecting another high-scoring game here, so Porter Jr. should get his opportunities from downtown. He just has to make 3 of them for our bet to land.
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-136)
The 2-time MVP has dominated the glass in matchups against the Thunder lately. He just had 16 boards against them in the game played 10 days ago, which was the 3rd time in 4 meetings he went over 12.5 rebounds against them. Jokic’s numbers have been solid to start the season; in the last 5 games played he has gone over 12.5 boards 3 times. Rebounding has been the Achilles heel of this Thunder team in the 7 games they’ve played so far. Opponents are averaging 57.1 rebounds per game against them, which ranks only 26th in the NBA. Denver likes to run when playing on the road this season, they give up an NBA-worst 125.5 points per game. Combine that with the fact that Oklahoma City plays the 6th-fastest pace in the league and I think this game has all the necessary ingredients for a high-scoring affair. After all, the 1st meeting of the season produced a 122-117 game. If we get a similar score line tonight, then Jokic will have no problems getting to at least 13 boards.
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