Filip Tomic
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I’m aiming to cash my second Same Game Parlay bet of the NBA Finals following my +529 odds win with my Game 2 SGP. The Nuggets and Heat square off at Kaseya Center for Game 4 in what could be a pivotal game in this series. Tip-off is at 8:30 pm ET on ABC.
Don’t forget to bookmark our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for every NBA Finals game. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Miami Heat ML (+136)
Gabe Vincent to score 15+ points (+135)
Kyle Lowry over 3.5 assists (-142)
Same Game Parlay odds: +614
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Miami Heat ML (+136)
As crazy as it sounds, losing Game 3 isn’t the end of the world for the Heat. They’ve been counted out many times in this postseason, so this is nothing new to them. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were their only productive players on Wednesday as they shot just 37% from the field as a team, and that’s just not going to do it at this stage. Once again their role players disappointed and only Caleb Martin scored in double figures alongside Butler and Adebayo. Miami was also outrebounded by 25, so that’s something they’ll need to address today. Following Wednesday’s loss, the Heat are now just 1-8 SU/ATS in the last 9 meetings with the Nuggets. They’ve also failed to cover the spread in the last 5 games against them in South Beach. Miami is on the brink in Game 4, there’s really no doubt about that. If the Heat don’t wake up, it could be game over next Monday, but I’m not ready to give up on this team just yet. I still believe head coach Erik Spoelstra has something up his sleeve. I’ll take the Heat to win Game 4 at home.
Read our Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat predictions
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Gabe Vincent to score 15+ points (+135)
After strong performances in Games 1 and 2, when he had 19 and 23 points, Gabe Vincent laid an egg on Wednesday, scoring just 7 points on 2-for-10 shooting from the field and just 1-for-6 from the field. Because of that the oddsmakers are offering a very generous +135 odds for him to score just 15 points on Friday, something he has done 5 times in his last 7 games dating back to the series against the Celtics. Only 2 starters scored in double figures for Miami in the Game 3 loss, at this stage that’s simply not good enough to compete, so I’m expecting head coach Erik Spoelstra to put Vincent in positions to be successful tonight. Points leader Jimmy Butler has looked very tired at times, compared to the first round when he was averaging 37.6 points per game against Milwaukee, his scoring has fallen to just 20.7 points in these Finals. That tells us that the Heat really need a lift from someone else besides him and I firmly believe Vincent is our guy tonight.
Kyle Lowry over 3.5 assists (-142)
Kyle Lowry was one of just 3 Heat bench players to score points in the Game 3 loss at home as he finished with 9 and 5 assists to go along with his 2 steals. He played a total of 30 minutes, which is encouraging ahead of Game 4 with the Heat looking to even things up. The savvy veteran has enjoyed a really solid postseason, averaging 8.9 points and 4.3 assists per game and his numbers have stayed consistent in the 3 Finals games. Game 4 is basically the biggest moment of Miami’s season, as losing this game most likely means the series is ending next Monday in Denver. I’ve mentioned Lowry’s veteran leadership many times in my bets before and he is 1 of 3 Heat players who currently have a ring, so his experience in these moments will once again be invaluable. With the return of Tyler Herro also looming over the team, there is a pretty good chance he teams up with Lowry as part of the second unit, which should help the point guard on the assists front. With Lowry clearing this line twice already in the Finals and 3 times in his last 4 games, I think this is a really solid bet to close out our Same Game Parlay.
You can also check out Mark Zinno’s picks for Game 4
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