Filip Tomic
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It took us only 2 games in the NBA Finals to cash our first Same Game Parlay with our NBA Finals Game 2 SGP at +529 odds. I’ve prepared another bet for Game 3 which tips off on Wednesday at 8.30 pm ET on ABC.
Don’t forget to bookmark our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total throughout the NBA Finals. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Miami Heat ML (+120)
Max Strus 2+ made threes (-250)
Bam Adebayo to record 10+ rebounds (+100)
Same Game Parlay odds: +410
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Miami Heat ML over Denver Nuggets (+120)
Game 2 was all about shooting and scoring for the Heat as they bounced back from the defeat in the series opener in a big way. They finished the game shooting the three-ball at 49%, which means they’re now shooting 48% in their last 5 postseason wins compared to just 35% in their last 4 losses. That’s not all though, as they were also able to hold Nikola Jokic to just 4 assists, which was quite a difference from Game 1 in which he had 14 of them. The Heat forced Jokic to dominate by scoring as he racked up 41 points, but that didn’t work out for the Nuggets and now they are 0-4 when their MVP goes for 40+ points.
With the series now moving to Miami for the next 2 games, I’m giving the Heat a slight edge despite the oddsmakers making them underdogs for Game 3. They have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 home games and the crowd should carry them in the first home game of this series. In their last 8 home games on a Wednesday the Heat are 6-2 SU, and with role players playing a lot better at home than on the road they should have enough to squeeze out a win and take a 2-1 series lead.
Read our Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat predictions
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Max Strus 2+ made threes (-250)
After a donut in Game 1, Max Strus bounced back in a big way on Sunday with 14 points and 6 assists, going 4-for-10 from 3-point land. Only once in his past 8 games has he played more than the 29 minutes he logged in Game 2, so his role in Erik Spoelstra’s rotation is secure. Miami will need him to step up on Wednesday as well, and he will have to do so for his own sake as Tyler Herro’s comeback is hanging above his head. Herro normally starts for Miami when healthy, and there are indications that he might come back at some point in this series, but a strong performance in Game 3 would bolster Strus’s position.
He has delivered at least 2 threes in 14 of 20 games in this postseason. At 33.6% his efficiency might not wow you at first, but he has been one of the most consistent Heat players offensively. Together with Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent, the Nuggets struggled to stop Strus in Game 2.
Bam Adebayo to record 10+ rebounds (+100)
Although he fell short in Game 2, collecting just 9 rebounds, Bam Adebayo had a run of 3 consecutive games of double-digit boards prior to that game. That wasn’t because there was a drop in quality of play from his side, it was simply because the Heat had other players step up and he wasn’t needed to be as productive as he normally is. With the series now moving to South Beach, I think he will assert himself once again, especially on the glass where most people are saying he has the size disadvantage against Nikola Jokic.
He has logged 40+ minutes in 4 straight games dating back to Game 6 against Boston, and playing that many minutes is always good for numbers. So far in this postseason he’s averaging 9.4 rebounds per game, if we include the regular season he has had at least 10 rebounds in 3 of his last 6 against Denver. Expect him to clean things up on the glass in Game 3.
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