Filip Tomic
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The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to avoid a sweep as they host the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of their Western Conference Finals series. Tip-off is set for 8:.30 pm ET on ESPN and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
Don’t forget to also check our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for every game of the Conference Finals. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Denver Nuggets ML (+132)
Nikola Jokic over 1.5 made threes (+144)
LeBron James to record 1+ steals (-280)
Nuggets vs Lakers Same Game Parlay odds: +551
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Denver Nuggets ML (+132)
The Denver Nuggets are just a win away from making it into the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. They have won 4 of their last 5 meetings against LA, and tonight they’ll be going for their first ever sweep in a playoff series. The oddsmakers still have them as up to 3.5-point underdogs, so a bet on the money line is tempting, especially since the Lakers have the worst record when it comes to trailing 3-0 in a playoff series. LA is winless in 8 such games, and the average margin of defeat in their last 3 is 22.7 points. The Lakers are now just 1-4 SU over the last 5 games overall. LeBron James-led teams have been down 3-0 on 3 occasions in his career and he got swept twice, while in 2017 his Cavs team were able to win the next game before being beaten in 5 by the Warriors. You never want to give a team hope when they’re down in the postseason, so I’ll back Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets to finish it off with a sweep.
Read our Denver Nuggets vs LA Lakers predictions
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Nikola Jokic over 1.5 made threes (+144)
Serbian maestro Nikola Jokic has been stroking it from 3-point land this postseason, making 47.1% of his attempts. That’s an increase of almost 9% in efficiency compared to the regular season, so he’s stepping up his game in every area imaginable. He has made 2 threes twice in this series already, with Game 2 being the only exception. If we expand our search to the entire postseason, he’s done it 8 times in the 14 games he has played. The Lakers just can’t seem to figure out both Jokic or the Nuggets. So far in the 3 games played in this series they’re allowing 41.4% of attempts from 3-point range, a significant increase from the 34.5% they were allowing during the regular season. Jokic has never been to the NBA Finals, so let’s hope he can deliver under pressure.
LeBron James to record 1+ steals (-280)
Speaking of pressure, LeBron James has been in this situation a lot of times in his career, but being down 3-0 in a Conference Finals could be his biggest challenge yet. James has been solid this postseason run, but his age has showed in the past couple of games. That shouldn’t take anything away from his performances so far, as he’s averaging 23.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. When it comes to steals, he’s averaging exactly 1 per game in 15 postseason appearances and 1.3 per game in this series. Against the Nuggets he had a steal in each of the 3 regular-season games, which gives me confidence he can steal at least 1 possession away from Denver. In Game 3 the Nuggets turned the ball over just 5 times, and as good as they’ve been so far, I think it’s unrealistic to expect them to keep their turnover numbers that low in consecutive games. LeBron recorded 4 steals in Game 2 on the road, and getting 1 tonight at home shouldn’t be too much of an ask.
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