Filip Tomic
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The Cavs and Heat met just 2 days ago in Miami, with the road team coming out on top. Now it’s time for the Heat to respond as they wrap up their regular season series. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 pm on NBA TV, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
Check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total on all 6 Friday games!
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Miami Heat 1-10 win margin (+200)
Donovan Mitchell under 25.5 points (-108)
Tyler Herro to score 20+ points (+110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +971
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Miami Heat 1-10 win margin over Cleveland Cavaliers (+200)
The Miami Heat are looking to bounce back here following Wednesday’s loss to the Cavs. It was a low-scoring game, marked by stellar defense from both sides which isn’t all that surprising considering they’re ranked 2nd and 4th in defensive efficiency. Miami cannot afford to lose another game here, as the Atlanta Hawks are right behind them as the two teams battle for the 7th seed. Turnovers are the main reason why the Heat lost on Wednesday, as they committed 22 of them compared to just 13 by their opponent, so I expect head coach Eric Spoelstra to be on his guys on that for tonight’s game.
It should be another dog fight, but with a 13-5 SU record over the last 18 meetings favoring Miami, I think this mini-series between the two teams ends in a split. Miami has won 18 of the last 20 meetings at Miami-Dade Arena. It could be a close finish but the Heat should have enough to pull out the win.
Friday’s NBA mega parlay has +678 odds, check it out!
Donovan Mitchell under 25.5 points (-108)
Mitchell’s struggles against the Heat are well-documented. There’s something about this team that just doesn’t suit his playing style, be it the slow pace they play at or the suffocating defense, or maybe even a combination of the two? Either way, if Miami plans on winning here, they’ll need to slow down the Cavs’ leading scorer.
The Heat have done a stellar job at that in all 3 meetings this season, holding him to an average of just 15.7 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and just 22% from three. Even his free-throw percentage has fallen down to 71%, that just tells you that Mitchell is aware of his struggles against his team and it’s all mental now. Jimmy Butler is one of the best one-on-one defenders in the game, and let’s hope he keeps Mitchell under his total here as he did on Wednesday.
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Tyler Herro to score 20+ points (+110)
Herro has been pretty consistent lately, clearing this line 3 times in his last 4 games. He is one of the game’s elite three-point shooters, and the Heat will definitely be counting on his production to come out on top. He’s upped his percentage from three in 2 consecutive months and right now he’s at 42.1% efficiency in March while making 3.2 threes on just 7.6 attempts per game. He’s also averaging 20 points per game in 2 meetings with the Cavs this season and on Wednesday he finished with a solid 22 points.
Cleveland is far from being a solid team on the perimeter defensively this year, especially on the road. Teams are averaging 38.4% of makes against them in that scenario, which is the 5th-worst mark in the entire NBA, with teams like Brooklyn, Houston, Golden State and San Antonio behind them. With 20+ points scored in 3 of the last 5 games vs Cleveland, I’m confident Herro gets to that number once again.
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