Filip Tomic
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The pressure is on Philadelphia to respond after they laid an egg in Game 3 on Friday. Can Joel Embiid come up big when his team needs him the most or will the Celtics take full control of this series? Tip-off is at 3:30 pm ET on ESPN, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
Be sure to also check our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for Game 4 of Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Philadelphia 76ers ML (+118)
Tobias Harris over 13.5 points (-122)
Al Horford over 1.5 made threes (-164)
Same Game Parlay odds: +488
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Philadelphia 76ers ML (+118)
After back-to-back victories this series is now seemingly under the control of the Boston Celtics. Jaylen Brown in particular was stellar on the defensive end in Game 3, holding James Harden to just 3-for-14 shooting. Joel Embiid did his part with 30 points and 13 rebounds while still playing on an injured knee, but the rest of the team was a complete letdown as the Sixers finished the game shooting under 40% from the field. Philadelphia’s backs are against the wall in Game 4, but maybe that’s something that can finally get them going. Despite the loss on Friday, they are still 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games and they’ve covered the spread in 6 of the last 9 games overall. You don’t see often the #3 seed lose 2 games in a row at home, so that’s also a factor working in the 76ers’ favor. It’s hard to imagine a team that has the MVP and that went 54-28 SU during the regular season and 29-12 SU at home losing back-to-back games on their home court, so I’ll give a slight edge to Philly.
Read our Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers predictions
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Tobias Harris over 13.5 points (-122)
James Harden shooting 5-for-28 from the field in the last 2 games and Embiid playing with a knee brace means that the 76ers will have to dig deep and find another reliable scoring option for Game 4. Why not the 4th-leading scorer on the team, Tobias Harris? He didn’t have the best of games in Game 3, scoring just 7 points while dealing with foul trouble which limited him to just 25 minutes. Other than that game, he has been able to clear this line in every single game in this postseason run, while averaging a really solid 17.4 points per game on 55% from the field and 48% from three. He clearly isn’t the focal point of the Celtics defense in this series, but that shouldn’t deter bettors from backing him to have a solid scoring game. He has shot at least 50% or better in all 3 games in this series, so I expect that consistency to continue. Philly needs a lift today to even this series.
Check out our Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Same Game Parlay at +419 odds!
Al Horford over 1.5 made threes (-164)
No player in the NBA has a better head-to-head record against Embiid than Al Horford. Yeah, you heard that right. Big Al has beaten Embiid in 10 of 14 meetings in the regular season and in 6 of their 7 matchups in the postseason. He also made a massive contribution in Friday’s win, knocking down 5 of 7 threes en route to 17 points to go along with his 7 rebounds. Despite his age, he is still able to string together solid performances and come up big in games like this. He’s shooting the three-ball at 36.4% in this postseason, which is slightly down from the 44.6% he was averaging in the regular season, but still a respectable number for a role player. Embiid’s injury also helps him as he cannot follow Horford around the perimeter as much, Philadelphia doesn’t have an effective alternative to defend the Celtics’ big men. With Horford knocking down at least 2 threes in 5 of 9 games, I think this is a really solid bet.
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