Filip Tomic
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The teams that met in last season’s NBA Finals last June finally meet in this regular season as the Celtics visit Chase Center for a date with the Warriors. Tip-off is at 8:30 pm ET on ABC, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
Head over to our NBA Predictions for picks on the side and total for tonight’s 8-game slate. Let’s dive in now!
Boston Celtics 11+ win margin (+270)
Stephen Curry under 4.5 made threes (-136)
Jaylen Brown over 2.5 made threes (-136)
Same Game Parlay odds: +804
Boston Celtics 11+ win margin (+270)
Normally I’m not a fan of backing teams to blow out opponents, especially not the defending champions on their home court, but the dominance of the Boston Celtics as of late has been just outstanding. They are displaying what has been the best statistical offense in NBA history, and they’ve taken it to a whole new level with the absence of Al Horford, posting a +13.7 point differential over the last 1,188 possessions without him. Although Golden State has been really solid at home, the Warriors are coming off back-to-back losses and are far from the team we saw beat the Celtics in last season’s Finals. The Warriors are also missing several rotational players, most notably Andrew Wiggins. Stephen Curry has been bothered by an ankle injury and Draymond Green has a hip problem, but both of them should be able to suit up. I still think the Celtics will run them over as they just destroyed the Phoenix Suns by 27 points on the road.
Saturday’s NBA Mega Parlay has +608 odds!
Stephen Curry under 4.5 made threes (-136)
I mentioned the ankle injury bothering Steph Curry, and his game has dropped off significantly compared with the first 15 games of the season. He’s shooting 44% from the field and 41% from 3-point range over his last 8 outings while averaging 25.8 points per game. Those are still elite numbers, but before that stretch Curry was on pace for a 50-40-90 season, accomplished only by a handful players in NBA history. He had just 2 threes out of 10 attempts against the Pacers in his last game, finishing with 12 points. He failed to score over 4.5 in 3 of his last 5 games, and facing one of the elite defensive teams in the NBA he might struggle again. The Celtics are allowing just 31.4% of threes in their last 3 games, the last time Curry faced them he finished with just 3 points in 14 minutes played, leaving the game early with an injury.
Jaylen Brown over 2.5 made threes (-136)
One of either Brown or Tatum will have to have a big game offensively in order for the Celtics to leave Chase Center with their heads held high. In the end I decided for Brown, only because he, unlike Tatum, didn’t shrink in the moment during the Finals in June. Brown has scored 20 and 26 points in his last 2 games against the Celtics and he’s also averaging 29.5 points per game in 4 played this month. His 3-point shooting has steadily increased to 38.2% in December, up from 33.3% the month before that. He takes a whopping 8.5 attempts from the perimeter, that should be enough for him to nail at least 3 threes tonight. The Warriors’ defense has been far from impressive lately, they just allowed 124 points against the Utah Jazz. From 3-point land opponents are scoring on 34.7% attempts against them, which is nothing to write home about. I’m expecting tonight’s game to be played at a fast pace, and Brown could lead the Celtics in scoring.
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