Filip Tomic
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NBA on TNT is where it’s at on Thursday night, and we have another pair of exciting matchups coming our way. Tipping off at 7.30 pm ET it will be the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets in what will be their 2nd head-to-head battle of the season. I have prepared a Same Game Parlay, which you can find below.
We have picks on the side and total for all 6 games on our NBA predictions page, don’t forget to check those out.
Let’s dive in!
Boston Celtics -3 (-110)
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 made threes (-111)
Ben Simmons to record 8+ assists (+170)
Same Game Parlay odds: +876
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Boston Celtics -3 (-110)
Boston is 6-0 with a +12.5 MOV on the second leg of a back-to-back this season. That includes going 5-1 ATS and covering the spread by an average of +6.8 points. Boston hosted New Orleans on Wednesday and prevailed 125-114, with Jaylen Brown dropping a season-high 41 points. The Celtics now face the Nets in Brooklyn for the second time this season. In the first game, the Celtics came away with a 103-92 win.
That game featured both Brooklyn superstars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, which will not be the case on Thursday. Durant is sidelined indefinitely with a knee injury that he suffered on Sunday. The Nets will need either Seth Curry or TJ Warren to step up and contribute more. Even if that happens, the problem on defense remains the same. Brooklyn is allowing opposing teams to shoot at the 4th-highest rate from the perimeter, and considering Boston averages the 2nd most 3-pointers attempted per game we should see a similar score to the first matchup.
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 made threes (-111)
While Brown is currently listed as questionable for this contest, there is value on the Celtics forward if he does play. In the 1st meeting of the season between the two teams, Brown finished with 34 points in 40 minutes played, knocking down 5 of 9 triples. That was his 2nd game in a row vs Brooklyn in which he cleared this line, so I’m very optimistic he’ll be able to do so once again on Thursday. Last night he erupted for 41 at New Orleans while connecting on 50% of his 3-point attempts. Brown and Tatum have been taking turns scoring 30+ per game carrying the Celtics’ offense. Brooklyn is the ideal team for Brown to have another productive night, as the Nets are allowing 39.3% shooting from 3 over their last 3 games (8th-worst mark in the NBA). Not having to deal with Durant’s length is also a bonus, so I’m confident Brown will get the job done.
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Ben Simmons to record 8+ assists (+170)
One of the beneficiaries of Durant’s injury will likely be Ben Simmons, whose usage rate should go up as he fills in the hole left behind by KD. His mission won’t be easy, as he has to get everyone involved against one of the top defenses in the NBA — but he has been consistent to start off 2023. In 2 of 4 games played he has recorded 9 dimes at Chicago and at New Orleans. He is averaging only 28.3 minutes per game so far this month, but I expect that number to gradually increase as the Nets try to figure things out without their best player. That in theory should mean an increase in production. Simmons has cleared this line twice in the last 3 meetings with Boston. Brooklyn has been racking up the assists in home games as a team, averaging 27.3 per game — which is the 4th-highest number in the league. KD averages 5.3 per game, so expect those to be distributed between the 2 main ball-handlers — Irving and Simmons.
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