Heading into a big day of NBA playoff action, I have compiled a 24-21 record on my picks for this column. Tonight I like both underdogs to cover the spread in addition to an over play. Without further ado, I’ll get into the reasoning behind those picks.
New York Knicks +4.5 over Miami Heat (-110)
The Knicks face the Heat in Game 4 in Miami. Normally, you’d be celebrating the fact that the Knicks are holding the Heat to a tiny 106 points per game through the first 3 contests of this series. But the problem is the Knicks’ offense has been downright putrid, averaging just 99 points per game over the first 3. New York is shooting only 42% from the field, an awful 27.2% from 3 and an embarrassing 68% from the free-throw line. It has been ugly.
Miami hasn’t been much better, but it has been better from beyond the arc. The Heat are also sharing the ball better while not turning it over as much. Generally because the way these offenses have played to this point, it’s hard for me to just laying points with either team. The Knicks are certainly more desperate and I would think that some positive regression is coming their way on the offensive end. I’ll take the points with New York.
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Golden State Warriors +3.5 over Los Angeles Lakers (-110)
The Golden State Warriors haven’t been on the ropes in the playoffs often, but they are in a difficult spot down 2 games to 1 to the Los Angeles Lakers with Game 4 in L.A. Golden State hasn’t played like itself this series, averaging just 112 points per game. During the regular season the Dubs averaged more than 118 points per game. Also, they are shooting a mere 43.5% from the field during this series. Their 3-point shooting, at 39.6% has kept them in games and allowed them to win 1.
Golden State will have to find a way to slow down Los Angeles inside. The Lakers are averaging 47 points per game in the paint. The Warriors will also need a scoring effort from someone other than Stephen Curry. In their Game 2 win, Klay Thompson dropped 30 and the Warriors became somewhat unguardable. Los Angeles’ offense is still highly inefficient; I don’t trust it. The 3-point shooting is bad and Anthony Davis has been wildly up and down. Give me Golden State and the points.
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Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers Over 227 (-110)
The total in this game feels correlated. It’s the Warriors and the over or the Lakers and the under. In Game 2 Golden State shot better from the field, better from 3 and won the battle inside by scoring more points in the paint. The Warriors were dominated inside in their 2 losses. This postseason, in the Warriors’ 5 wins they shot 47% from the field; in their 5 losses they shot only 35%. If they score, they will win. Duh!
It goes beyond that, because it’s more about shot selection and playing inside. In the Warriors’ 5 wins these playoffs they are shooting 36.9% from 3; in the 5 losses they are shooting 33%. So it’s not that drastic of a drop-off in 3-point shooting. I think Golden State figures out a way to emulate that Game 2 blueprint that allowed it to win handily. The Dubs have scored at least 120 in 4 of their 5 wins this postseason and I think they do it again tonight. Over 227.
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