Heading into a jam-packed day of NBA playoff action I have gone 2-1 each of the last 5 times I have produced this column, for a total record of 10-5 during this stretch. Overall I’m 20-13 with my best bets, so let’s keep the momentum going on Friday.
Tonight I like a couple of underdogs to cover the spread in addition to a player prop in Game 6 of the Lakers vs Grizzlies series. Without further ado, I’ll get into the reasoning behind those picks.
Sacramento Kings +7.5 over Golden State Warriors (-110)
Golden State has everything going its way right now. But this is still a defense that was 21st in the league this year and the Warriors are trying to slow down the #1 offense. Unless you get a terrible shooting game from the Kings, like they did in Game 3, this is too many points for me to lay with the Warriors. Golden State 1-4 ATS in last 5 home games against the Kings and Sacramento is 12-3 ATS last 15 road games. I think experience and home court will be enough for Golden State to close out the series, but the Kings will go down with some serious fight and a lot of scoring. Sacramento +7.5.
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Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 Los Angeles Lakers (-110)
The Grizzlies avoided elimination in Game 5 at home. But Game 6 is back in Los Angeles and the Lakers fan base will be excited to out Dillon Brooks, Ja Morant and company out to pasture. That won’t be as easy as it seems. After the Game 1 shooting outburst from the Lakers where they shot 53%, they haven’t shot better than 45% since. The Grizzlies defense gives up just 112 points per game and is the best FG% defense in the NBA this regular season.
Memphis has to win the battle on the boards. The Grizzlies did that in both games they won, and it led to the Lakers being held under 100 points and kept them below 42% shooting from the field. I expect a big game from Ja Morant. He is averaging 30.5 points per game against the Lakers this season and he is shooting 45.8 percent from 3 in this series. That’s enough for me to back the Grizzlies to keep this close. I’ll take the points. Memphis +4.5.
Ja Morant Over 6.5 rebounds (-142)
Ja Morant is going to have to play one of his best games if he hopes to force a Game 7 back in Memphis. He did it in Game 5 by scoring 31 points. Rebounding has been a key for Memphis in this series. Both games that they have won, they won the rebounding advantage. Morant needs to be a bigger part of that to help his team win. Morant is averaging over 7 rebounds per game in this series. He has gone over this total in Game 3 and Game 5. He likely would have went over 6.5 in Game 1 had he not gotten injured and left the game. This is a little juicy, but I’m backing the Grizzlies to cover. They won’t be able to do that without Morant being all over the place. Morant over 6.5 rebounds.
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