Filip Tomic
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The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat square off for the second straight day. After yesterday’s Suns vs Mavericks Same Game Parlay win I’m going at it again today. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET on NBA TV, and my Same Game Parlay bet is listed below.
Don’t forget to also visit our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total on Monday’s 6-game slate. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Under 227 total points (-110)
Jimmy Butler over 6.5 rebounds (+112)
Bam Adebayo over 20.5 points (-104)
Parlay odds: +720
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Under 227 total points (-110)
With their best player struggling to score against this Miami defense, I think Atlanta is in for another tough offensive game. The Hawks managed just 9 threes in Saturday’s game, despite that being an area that Miami really struggles to defend. Tonight’s projected total of 227.5 points has been surpassed by these teams just twice in the last 10 meetings over the past 3 seasons, and the O/U record during that stretch is also 2-8 in favor of the under. The teams have averaged just 213.8 points in those 10 games, so don’t count on a high-scoring matchup. Miami has gone under in 4 of 5 overall, and in 5 of the last 7 against Southeast Division teams. Let’s take the under once more.
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Jimmy Butler over 6.5 rebounds (+112)
Jimmy Butler’s contribution on defense was immense in the win over Atlanta as the Hawks’ duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combined to shoot just 5-for-27 from the field and 0-for-10 from three. Butler’s role on this team is to guard the opposing team’s best player, while also scoring timely baskets down the stretch when the game is on the line. Although he leads the team in scoring, more often than not he defers to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro on offense, helping his team in other ways, such as rebounding. Against the Hawks on Saturday he finished with 11 boards, which was the 3rd time in 4 games he had cleared this line. He has played them twice this season and he’s averaging 7 rebounds a game, and with Atlanta ranking just 21st in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game on the road, I think Butler will once again clean the glass consistently.
Check our New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings Same Game Parlay at +687 odds!
Bam Adebayo over 20.5 points (-104)
Bam Adebayo has thoroughly dominated the Hawks this season, averaging 27.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game in 3 meetings while shooting over 62% from the field and 90% from the line. The Hawks just aren’t built to handle a player like him down low, even when Clint Capela is playing heavy minutes. Teams are just having their way on the inside against Atlanta, and they have given up 57.3 points per game inside the paint in their last 3 games, which ranks only 29th in the NBA. For the season they’re 26th in this category with Utah, Detroit, Sacramento and San Antonio behind them. Bad habits like that don’t go away overnight, so I’m expecting another high output from Adebayo. For those who want to increase the odds, I’d even recommend backing him to score 25+ points, but let’s play it a bit safer with this bet.
Monday’s NBA mega parlay has +757 odds!
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