Filip Tomic
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The Celtics won all 3 of their NBA regular-season meetings against Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean the Hawks will come into TD Garden today with their guard down. You can watch Game 1 of this series on ESPN from 3.30 pm ET and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay for the matchup which you can find below.
We also have picks on the side and total for Saturday’s 4-game slate in our NBA predictions, so be sure to check those out. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Trae Young to record 10+ assists (+150)
Jaylen Brown under 26.5 points (-108)
Bogdan Bogdanovic 2+ made threes (-250)
Parlay odds: +532
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Trae Young to record 10+ assists (+150)
I’ve highlighted the Trae Young vs Derrick White matchup as one to keep an eye on in this series. Young has put up really solid numbers in recent games against the Celtics regardless of who was on him. He’s averaging 27 points and 9 assists per game in the last 2 seasons against them. In 6 meetings during that stretch he’s finished with double-digit assists in half of the games, so we’re getting really solid odds for a bet that basically lands 50% of the time. Young didn’t have the best of series in last year’s playoffs, putting up pedestrian numbers in 5 games against the Heat, and after seeing him get redemption on Miami in the play-in game, it is now time for him to step up his game in the postseason as well. The Celtics are one of the better teams at stopping the opposing team’s ball movement, but if the Hawks stick to their game plan of pushing the pace I have no reason to fear Young can dish out 10 assists.
Read our Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics predictions
Jaylen Brown under 26.5 total points (-108)
I’m usually not big on backing players to go under their total, but I’m willing to make an exception with Jaylen Brown today. And that doesn’t have anything to do with his qualities as a player — the main reason why I have him scoring under 27 points is the hand injury he suffered towards the end of the regular season. Brown reportedly cut his shooting hand while cleaning a vase and needed stitches, and although he said the injury should heal before the postseason I’m just not convinced there won’t be any lingering effects. He practised on Thursday and Friday, but with only 7 days in between the injury and Game 1 against Atlanta I feel like that’s not enough time for him to make a full recovery. And to make matters worse, he hasn’t had the best of times playing the Hawks throughout his career. Brown averages only 16 points per game in 21 meetings with Atlanta, and he has scored 27 points only once in his career against them — way back in 2017. This season in 2 meetings he finished with 22 and 24 points, so whatever the Hawks are doing to contain him has worked to perfection so far.
Saturday’s NBA mega parlay has +1426 odds!
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Bogdan Bogdanovic 2+ made threes (-250)
Since joining Atlanta in 2021, Bogdan Bogdanovic has lit up the Celtics in 3 of their 4 meetings, scoring 19, 26 and 25 points. He might not be the same player any more after an injury-plagued season, but he has slowly settled into the rotation coming off the bench and is now a very valuable piece, playing almost 28 minutes per game. In 54 games he’s shooting the three-ball at over 40% efficiency, while making 2.7 shots per game. He has also failed to make 2 threes just once in his last 8 meetings with the Celtics, so that should give him added confidence in today’s game. Atlanta’s strategy is pretty clear: they’ll have to run with the Celtics and hope to outscore them if they want to get anything out of this game. Bench production will be one of the keys to this series, and I’m certain Bogdanovic can make a difference.
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