Ricky Dimon
We have reached the end of the first week – albeit a short one – of the 2025 Major League Baseball season, and it wraps up with a 13-game slate on Sunday. As usual, all but 1 game will be played in the afternoon Eastern Time before the Braves and Padres take center stage at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN.
The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Sunday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals: NRFI (-136)
Cleveland and Kansas City have played to the NRFI in each of the first 2 games in this AL Central series and I expect more of the same on Sunday. Tanner Bibee is toeing the rubber for the Guardians, while the Royals are going with Michael Wacha. Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) ended last season on a heater, compiling a 2.64 ERA in September and a 3.45 ERA in 4 playoff appearances. Wacha went 13-8 with a 3.35 ERA.
It is true that K.C.’s Vinnie Pasquantino has torched Bibee in the past, but nobody else in the lineup has done anything of note in this particular matchup. No one on Cleveland has had success against Wacha. Jose Ramirez is batting .250 against him with zero extra-base hits, while Steven Kwan comes in at .231. All things considered, once again in this series it’s the NRFI for me.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (+105)
The Braves bats have not yet woken up from the offseason, with just 7 runs through 3 games (all losses), but I expect that to change early and often this season. Nick Pivetta is making his first start for the Padres after going 6-12 with a 4.14 ERA with the Red Sox last year. Atlanta DH Marcell Ozuna, who is hitting in the 4 hole, has homered 6 times in 29 lifetime at-bats against Pivetta. Austin Riley has also homered twice off the right-hander.
San Diego should also have a good chance of getting on the scoreboard right away. The visitors are countering with AJ Smith-Shawver, who is making just his eighth MLB regular-season appearances. He faced the Padres in the wild-card round of the 2024 playoffs and allowed 3 runs on 4 hits before getting pulled after just 1.1 innings of work. At plus money, the YRFI has great value.
