MLB Picks

ROKU has us going with a super early start on Sunday as the Houston Astros play the Boston Red Sox at 11:35 am ET. The Red Sox, who are the best team in the AL over the past 30 games or so, have taken the first two game of this series and are looking for the home sweep. This series has also had plenty of drama, and these teams started accusing each other of cheating and stealing signs and stuff on Saturday. Of course, Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the disgraced coach of the Astros during the cheating scandal, and Carlos Correa, who was at the heart of that scandal, has just been reunited with the Astros. So there is no shortage of controversy in this one. Sounds like a great time to play the game total, and I am on the under 8.

Framber Valdez is one of my favorite starters in baseball because he is so consistent and reliable. The current Red Sox have scarcely any at-bats against him, so we can project another solid outing — 6 or 7 innings with 1 or 2 runs is pretty standard. On the other side is Lucas Giolito. While he has logged a couple of rough starts lately, he has posted 3 straight scoreless starts at home, and that seems important. I think both starters keep the scoring down, which brings in the high-leverage arms, and this one ends up on the low end of the scoring, in spite of all the chirping about sign stealing. Give me the game total under 8.

Astros vs Red Sox prediction: Under 8 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s time for Sunday baseball as the Los Angeles Dodgers get ready to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. Both teams are eyeing a series win – the Rays are aiming to keep their Wild Card hopes alive, and the Dodgers look to maintain control of the NL West with the Padres close behind. Taking the mound for the Dodgers will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto who enters with a 9-7 record and 2.63 ERA on the season.

For the Rays, Joe Boyle will get the start, making his third start of the season. Boyle enters with a 1-1 record, 2.82 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. Offensively, this isn’t what we’re used to seeing from the Dodgers, who are averaging 4.2 runs per game over their last 13, which is below their seasonal average of 5.2 runs per game. The Rays haven’t fared much better, averaging 3.5 runs per game, well below their seasonal average of 4.5 runs per game. At the end of the day, I trust Yamamoto and this Dodgers lineup more than I do the Rays. Sure, the Rays have played well in the first half of the season, but they’ve dropped eight of their last 10 games. Look for the Dodgers to win by one or more runs and secure a series win on Sunday, making them my best bet of the day. 

Dodgers vs Rays prediction: Los Angeles -1.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Washington Nationals. Over the past 2 days, we have watched the Brewers amass 24 runs and win both games. On the mound today, we have Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers and Brad Lord of the Nationals. Misiorowski has made some waves in the MLB especially after being included in the all-star game. The young pitcher has a 4-1 record with a 2.70 ERA while throwing over 100 miles per hour regularly. In his most recent start, he gave up 3 runs in the first inning and turned it around to not give up any more hits or runs through 4 innings. The issue with Misiorowski is that he is not pitching deep into games. Over his past 4 starts, he has only reached the 5^th inning once. Luckily for the Brewers, the bullpen has been playing very well (outside of the first game against the Nationals). Overall, the Brewers are starting a great pitcher and he will be backed up by more great pitching.

For the Nationals, Brad Lord will take the hill. Lord is a relief pitcher that has started in his last 2 appearances. In those starts, he has pitched 9.1 innings giving up 7 hits and 2 earned runs. These are some impressive numbers for a relief pitcher that is thrown into the starting lineup. The issue is that he will face a Brewers team that is batting .347 over the last 6 games. Additionally, they have accrued a total of 40 hits over the past 2 nights. I am not sure Lord has what it takes to shut them down. Outside of the starters, the Nationals have the worst bullpen ERA in the MLB (5.72). In that last 2 nights alone, the Nats bullpen has given up 9 earned runs. All in all, the Brewers are hitting the ball better and are the safer option when looking at the pitching. I am rolling with the Brewers to make it 3 in a row.

Brewers vs. Nationals Prediction: Brewers ML (-185) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Kansas City Royals will look to bounce back from Saturday’s loss to the Toronto Blue Jays as they aim to secure a series win. The Blue Jays held the Royals to just two runs, which is well below their average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 13 games. However, that’s great news for the Blue Jays as they’ve struggled with their pitching lately, posting a 5.43 ERA over their last 15 games. 

Seth Lugo will take the mound for the Royals, entering with a 8-5 record and 3.03 ERA. For the Blue Jays, Chris Bassitt gets the nod, who’s 11-5 with a 4.24 ERA on the season. The Royals have the offensive tools to put up runs, and Bassitt has looked shaky recently, posting a 5.06 ERA over his last three starts despite going 2-1. Interestingly enough, Lugo hasn’t been sharp either in his last three outings, going 2-0 with a 5.09 ERA. At the end of the day, the Blue Jays haven’t done enough to convince me their pitching issues are behind them. Look for the Royals to score a few runs against Bassitt early on and take advantage of a weak Blue Jays bullpen, making Kansas City my best bet of the day. 

Royals vs Blue Jays prediction: Royals ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s time for Sunday baseball as the new-look Minnesota Twins look to snap their four-game losing streak against the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland has taken the first two games of the series and will be aiming for the sweep as they continue to play well in the second half of the season. Taking the mound for the Guardians will be the southpaw Joey Cantillo who enters with a 2-1 record with a 4.14 ERA this season. 

For the Twins, Jose Urena will get the start who’s struggled this season, going 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. It’s been a journey for Urena this year as he’s been with the Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers, and now the Twins. The Guardians aren’t exactly blowing their opponents out of the water, averaging just 3.9 runs per game this season – however, they have a solid bullpen that holds a 3.60 ERA this year that’s helped them close out some close games this season. At the end of the day, I think the Twins are going to have a tough time in the second-half of the season, and it won’t get any better for them today. Look for the Guardians to get ot Urena early on and complete the sweep, making Cleveland my best bet of the day. 

Twins vs Guardians prediction: Guardians ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The New York Yankees take on the Miami Marlins on Sunday. Surprisingly, the Marlins have won the last 2 games — including a shut out last night. On the mound are Luis Gil of the Yankees and Edward Cabrera of the Marlins. Gil will make his season debut after a lat strain. In his most recent Triple-A start he pitched 4.1 innings. This leads me to believe that it will be a short start for Gil in this one. This means that they will be relying on the bullpen more, which can be problematic. As we saw in the first game against Miami, the bullpen squandered a 9-4 lead to end up losing 13-12. A ninth-inning win followed by a shutout gives the Marlins tons of momentum coming into this one.

For the Marlins, Cabrera has a 4-5 record with a 3.35 ERA on the season. These statistics change a little when he is at home. In Miami he has only given up 4 runs over his last 5 starts — which have consisted of him pitching 31.2 innings. These home numbers are impressive for any pitcher, especially when they have been against teams such as the Padres, Brewers and Phillies. This leads me to believe that he may have another good day against a Yankees team that was shut out last night and is batting .230 over the past 7 games. Overall, I am not thrilled with the warmup that Gil has had coming into this one. I feel that a short start for him will put the shaky bullpen on the mound for too many innings. I am going to trust Cabrera and roll with the momentum the Marlins bring into this one.

Yankees vs Marlins prediction: Miami ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Giants and Mets are set for a rubber match on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field. San Francisco took the series opener by a score of 4-3 on Friday, and New York responded with a 12-6 win on Saturday. New York broke out of a 3-game offensive slump with a big 12-run performance last night. It was a much-needed breakthrough, as the Mets had scored just 4 total runs in their previous 3 games. Now, the New York offense will face San Francisco’s Carson Whisenhunt. The 24-year-old left-hander will be making just his second career start at the big league level. The first one wasn’t spectacular, as he allowed 4 runs on 5 hits over 5 innings against the Pirates on July 28. Needless to say, the Mets present a much tougher challenge than the Pirates.

The offense supporting Whisenhunt hasn’t been great, as only 3 teams scored fewer runs than the Giants in July. The Mets have been one of the best home teams in baseball so far this season, as they own a strong record of 38-17 at Citi Field. They are also 4-1 in head-to-head matchups against the Giants this season. Consider backing the Mets on the moneyline at home.

Giants vs Mets prediction: Mets ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

The Baltimore Orioles stunned the Chicago Cubs on Saturday, scoring 4 runs in the top of the eighth inning to pull off a 4-3 comeback win. On Sunday, both teams will battle for the series — but the stakes are slightly higher for Chicago as a win would help them keep pace with the Brewers in what is a tight NL Central race in the second half of the season.

Taking the mound for the Orioles will be Brandon Young, who enters with a 0-5 record and 6.63 ERA. The Cubs are countering with Colin Rea, who is 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA. Baltimore still has key players in its lineup that can do some damage, such as Jordan Westburg — who is batting .344 over his last 14 games. Ramon Laureano is hitting .341 in his last 13 and Gunnar Henderson is hitting .302 over his last 15. However, the Cubs have plenty of talent themselves — with players like Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. At the end of the day, I really like this Cubs team — and come October they could be a serious contender. Look for the Cubs to get the job done, making them my best bet of the day. 

Orioles vs Cubs prediction: Chicago -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After dropping the first 2 games of this series, the Pirates are looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Rockies on Sunday afternoon at Coors Field. The pitching matchup in this one pits’ Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller against Colorado’s Bradley Blalock. Keller posted a 2.93 ERA over 27.2 innings in July, and the Pirates were victorious in 4 of his 5 starts. He struggled a bit in his last outing, as he needed 73 pitches to get through just 2 innings against the Giants. However, he could be in line for a bounce back outing here. Keller has been great on the road, as his ERA drops from 3.94 at home to 3.31 on the road, and his BAA goes from .264 to .211. Look for Keller to limit the damage from the Rockies.

Aside from one blow-up start against the Padres back on May 10, Blalock has held his opponents in check. He missed over 2 months since that starts, but has been great upon his return. Blalock was impressive in July, as the 24-year-old right-hander posted a 1.59 ERA and issued just a single walk over 17 July innings. The Pirates have been among the worst offenses in baseball this season, and while they’ve looked decent at Coors Field, Blalock appears to be in a groove right now. Look to the under in the series finale.

Pirates vs Rockies prediction: Under 11.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Eduardo Rodriguez’s road woes continue to be a problem for the Diamondbacks. Rodriguez sports a 5.84 ERA through 10 road starts and 49.1 road innings this season. Furthermore, opponents are hitting a strong .318 against him away from Chase Field. Things won’t get any easier for the 32-year-old left-hander as he goes up against an Athletics team that hits lefties well. The Athletics rank tied for seventh in the majors with a .252 batting average against southpaws.

The Athletics are going with a bullpen game, which could be problematic for them. The Athletics own the worst bullpen ERA in the American League at 5.25. Arizona traded away some big bats at the deadline, but they are still capable of doing damage. It’s also worth mentioning that Arizona’s bullpen has struggled this season as well. The Diamondbacks rank 26th in the league with a 4.87 bullpen ERA. All in all, both offenses could be in positions to have success in this one, which makes the over the play.

Diamondbacks vs Athletics prediction: Over 10 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The Chicago White Sox stink, but they have stunk less since the all-star break, and today I am leaning towards another win for the South Side Sox. They are winners in 9 of their 13 games following the break, including a sweep of my Pirates in Pittsburgh. They have series wins against the Rays and Phillies since the break and have already clinched another series win by winning the first 2 games of this series in Anaheim. Now the White Sox have a slight pitching advantage for the Sunday matchup, and I think they can squeeze out another win. Sean Burke is not my favorite MLB starter, but among the White Sox rotation he is close to the top when it comes to trust level. He hasn’t been working overly deep into games recently but should at least provide the squad with a competitive start to the game.

Jack Kochanowicz is not a pitcher I am ever really looking to bet on. He allows too many walks while not earning enough strikeouts, and his batted ball profile leaves a ton to be desired as well. The righty has allowed 109 hits and 16 home runs to go along with 51 walks in 98.2 innings of work this season. His 5.75 ERA is the result, and he has struggled in a multitude of different matchups. The White Sox offense is not my favorite to back typically, but I do lean towards them winning the game at current pricing.

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels prediction: White Sox ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

Dylan Cease had numerous trade rumors pop up with his name in them during the trade deadline cycle, but he remains with the San Diego Padres after all as they make a push towards the post season. Cease has not had the season he hoped for, and that may have contributed to his decreased trade value from San Diego’s perspective, but he remains a talented piece of this Padres team, and he is my preferred starter in this matchup. Home runs and walks have been his concern, but he has the strikeout upside to get out of jams and if he can avoid the long ball in this spot the Padres should roll.

Andre Pallante twirled 7 scoreless frames in his last start against the Marlins, doing so in only 81 pitches thrown with 1 hit and 1 walk allowed. It was a dominant outing, but the rest of his season has been far from dominant, posting a 4.91 ERA prior to that start. Pallante is a pitch-to-contact starter who fails to generate many whiffs, and this Padres lineup has recently added several depth pieces to bolster their lineup and bench unit. I lean towards a multi-run win for San Diego today.

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction: Padres -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

Jacob deGrom provides the Texas Rangers with a clear starting pitching edge over Logan Evans of the Mariners today, and I lean towards a multi-run victory for the road team as a result. deGrom was not his sharpest during the month of July, allowing at least 1 home run in each start with 7 total in 28.2 innings pitched, but he still recorded 36 Ks in that span. To allow 7 home runs within 5 starts and only allow 13 combined earned runs is actually pretty good, and if he can find a way to keep the ball in the park Sunday, I expect a very strong outing. The Mariners improved their lineup at the trade deadline, but I still favor deGrom in this spot.

Evans enters this game coming off a poor start on the road against the Athletics, allowing 6 earned runs in his 4 innings of work. The 24-year-old right-hander has given Seattle decent innings this season given their injuries to Bryce Miller and George Kirby, but he is still the weakest of their starting rotation. Texas has been playing far better offensively of late, and while I wish they added more pieces at the trade deadline they have enough fire power in house to compete for the playoffs again.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers prediction: Rangers -1.5 (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120 odds.

We get a great matchup for Sunday night baseball as two of the best teams in the league face each other, and we are here with a Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. These teams have split the first two games in the series, including a 7-5 Detroit win yesterday in a game that saw Wheeler and Skubal each fan 10 guys. Both teams added depth and closing options to their bullpen at the deadline, but we haven’t seen those bullpens take full shape yet. At some point, both squads should be very stingy in the late innings, and that could start happening tonight. There is a lot of money chasing Detroit at a high payout (and avoiding Philly at a low payout), but I think the better play is the game total under.

Cristopher Sanchez will go for Philly. He has been fantastic all season, and a quality start machine. He was knocked around a bit by the White Sox in his last start, but that should be an outlier. Detroit hits lefties well, but Sanchez seems like a good bet to avoid damage. Detroit will throw newly acquired Charlie Morton. I have my worries about Morton. Despite his career-preserving hot stretch in the middle of the season, I don’t know how well he will hold up for the Tigers. There are 5 Philly batters who have 20 or 30 ABs against him too, which is worrisome. But guys tend to get up for their team debut, and that’s what I am looking for tonight. Finally, these bullpens should start to settle in, and if neither starter has a meltdown early, we should see a parade of tough arms in the late innings in a game that might feel a bit like a playoff game. I am playing the under on Sunday night.

Tigers vs Phillies Prediction: Under 8 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.