Ricky Dimon
A new week in Major League Baseball gets underway with a modest 8-game schedule on Monday. It includes Yankees vs Orioles, Cardinals vs Reds and Tigers vs Astros. The YRFI/NRFI market is extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
I’m on a heater to start the season, with a 20-10-1 record on best bets while going 3-for-5 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632 and +439 odds. Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Monday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians: YRFI (+100)
Bailey Ober is taking the mound for Cleveland on Monday and that has me leaning toward the over on the 0.5 first inning run line. Jose Ramirez is 6-for-19 lifetime with 1 home run and 2 doubles and Nolan Jones is 1-for-3 with a homer. Those numbers alone are reasons for encouragement against an opposing pitcher who has struggled in the opening frame. Ober has allowed a first-inning run in 3 of his last 4 starts and his ERA for the season stands at 5.04 to go along with a 1.44 WHIP.
Cleveland is countering with Gavin Williams. The right-hander has surrendered a run in 2 of his last 4 outings and comes in with a 4.15 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Byron Buxton is 2-for-5 in that matchup and he has produced 6 multi-hit performances dating back to April 13, so the Twins #2 hitter is seeing the ball extremely well right now. It feels like both clubs have a good chance of scoring right away on Monday.
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-118)
Detroit’s Jack Flaherty will be toeing the rubber in this one. The veteran has been fantastic so far in 2025, sporting a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in addition to a 34-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 27.1 innings. Flaherty now faces a Houston club that is dead last in all of Major League Baseball with a 15.38 run scored in the first inning percentage.
For the Astros, Ronel Blanco’s numbers are not outstanding but he has been mostly clean in the first inning. The right-hander has pitched to the NRFI in each of his past 3 starts and in 4 of 5 overall this year. Kerry Carpenter is the only player on Detroit’s roster who has ever gotten a hit off Blanco and he is 1-for-2 with a single. I will happily back both pitchers to start strong on Monday.
