Caleb Wilfinger
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The week in Major League Baseball continues with a full 15-game slate on Wednesday. It includes a big series between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox, plus important National League ties such as the Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants.
The Pickswise experts have been absolutely on fire, cashing 4 MLB parlays over the past 4 days at odds of +989, +618, +569 and +397. Let’s keep the momentum going! Below is my MLB mega parlay for Wednesday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today’s games.
Giants -1.5 (+130)
Rangers vs Mets Under 9 (-118)
Padres vs Cardinals Over 9.5 (+102)
MLB parlay odds: +758
For this MLB parlay, we are going with a favorite on the run line and a pair of totals. Let’s break down each of the legs.
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San Francisco Giants -1.5 over Cincinnati Reds (+130)
The Reds have fallen on hard times, dropping 6 of their last 10 games. They’ll now turn to Hunter Greene, who has struggled mightily since returning from injury. In just two games back, the young hard-thrower has pitched a combined 6.2 innings and given up a whopping 15 hits and 14 runs. It’s possible that Greene may still not be 100%, which could be the reason for his glaring struggles. Until he shows us that he’s feeling good and can pitch effectively, Greene is not someone to rely on against a quality opponent.
Although his 5-5 record may not show it, Logan Webb holds a 2.48 home ERA through 90.2 innings pitched this season and he should be relieved to take on a reeling Reds team after having just faced the Braves. Let’s back the Giants to pick up a massive win at home in decisive fashion.
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Texas Rangers vs New York Mets Under 9 (-118)
In 24 starts in his rookie season, rookie sensation Kodai Senga has a 3.17 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a stunning 28.5% strikeout rate. The 30-year-old ranks in the 74th percentile in xBA, the 82nd percentile in xSLG and the 80th percentile in barrel rate among others in 136.2 innings. His only real downfall has been his walk rate, which is north of 11%, but he has managed to work around that and use his devastating forkball to get a lot of whiffs.
Dane Dunning hasn’t been quite as stellar, but he’s still as consistent as ever. Dunning holds a 3.64 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 29.2 innings in August, while surrendering 4 or fewer runs in 11 of his last 14 outings. Given the way both pitchers have been throwing, it’s hard to not back the under in this one.
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San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Over 9.5 (+102)
For the final leg of our mega parlay, we’re going with over 9.5 in this NL matchup between the Padres and Cardinals. Once thought to be dangerous playoff teams, both squads have massively underachieved this season, to the dismay of their fans. Starting pitching has been an issue, and it’s easy to get to an over in this game with Rich Hill on the mound. The veteran left-hander has struggled mightily all season long, holding an xERA of 5.59 and sits within the bottom 10th percentile in xBA, xWOBA, chase rate and whiff percentage. Hill simply isn’t missing many bats and I don’t see that changing today.
The Padres should tag Miles Mikolas in the first inning and build on that momentum throughout. The right-hander has an xERA of 5.03 and sits in the bottom 10th percentile in xBA and strikeout percentage, which will not get it done at the MLB level. I’m expecting a high-scoring affair, as both pitchers can be counted on to perform at an average, or below-average level.
