Today is a packed day in Major League Baseball, so let’s get straight to it. Below is my MLB mega parlay for Wednesday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today.
Tigers ML (+134)
Cubs -1.5 (+164)
Diamondbacks ML (+114)
Parlay odds: +1132
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Detroit Tigers ML (+134) over Minnesota Twins
Alex Faedo was fantastic in his last start for the Detroit Tigers tossing 6 innings of scoreless ball with only 1 hit surrendered. The right hander did issue 4 walks to only 2 strikeouts, but his command is not a true concern moving forward. A 5.80 ERA would turn surface-level bettors off, but his underlying numbers are more supportive of his skillset. Faedo has a 3.98 xERA thanks to a solid batted ball profile that features a 70th percentile hard-hit rate. His 4.37 SIERA is by no means an amazing mark, but the former 1st round pick has a solid 3-pitch mix and has potential as a member of the Tigers future plans. He faces the Minnesota Twins today who are likely to roll out 6 left-handed batters in their lineup. This actually benefits Faedo, on paper, as the right-hander has held lefty bats to a paltry .604 OPS this season. The Twins are much better against right-handed pitching and are in decent form of late, but I like how Faedo matches up and his upside as an underdog is intriguing.
Bailey Ober is someone I have backed multiple times this season, but his play has slipped a bit of late. As a true pitcher who doesn’t benefit from overpowering pure stuff, Ober can falter when his command isn’t pristine. For Ober, when his command is slipping it tends to not show up in the walks category, but more in his batted ball profile. He tends to limit walks no matter what, rather opting to throw the ball over the plate, and his last 2 starts have seen hard-hit rates of 38.9% and 44.4%, up from his season average of 32.6% according to Fangraphs. His outing against the Royals was his worst of the season, lasting only 4 innings while surrendering 11 hits and 6 earned runs across his 90 pitches. He then followed up that outing with a long first inning against Arizona which set the table for only 5 innings of work. With his decreasing ability to work deep into games and being well past his personal innings high for a single season already, Ober’s effectiveness down the stretch run will be interesting to watch. Detroit doesn’t have a very good offense, but they do rank in the top half of the league in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+164) over New York Mets
The Cubs and Mets conclude a series on Wednesday after splitting the first two games. While the Cubs’ offense has cooled off somewhat after a blistering few weeks, they got back to winning last night against a Mets team that was heavily decimated at the trade deadline. I look for the Cubbies to take the rubber match tonight. The primary reason for my support of the Cubs tonight is David Peterson, who is slated to start for the Mets.
A few weeks ago, the Mets stopped using Peterson like a traditional starter and instead turned him into an opener. He throws anywhere from 1 to 3 innings, and basically doesn’t turn the lineup over. While Peterson was getting rocked as a traditional starter, he has actually been effective as an opener, and he has not given up a run in his last 4 attempts. On the other hand, he is a guy who has historically given up a lot of runs in the early innings of his starts, and I expect him to regress back to that norm soon. Even if Peterson opens strongly again, the Mets will still have to rely on their bullpen at some point, and that is a unit I simply do not trust. For the Cubs, it will be Kyle Hendricks tonight. He has been shaky lately, but I do like his ability to induce weak contact, which will force a thin Mets’ lineup to string together several hits in a row.
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Arizona Diamondback ML (+114) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Tonight, we get game two of this series between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, after the Dodgers won a close game last night, in which the D-Backs were almost able to come back and win. The final score was 5-4 in favor of LA, but the Diamondbacks showed some fight, proving that they still have some fight in them for a wild card spot. In a division they were once leading, Arizona has now fallen to third in the NL West with a 57-57 record. They’ve now lost seven games in a row and are looking for their first win in the month of August. The losing streak has to snap eventually, and we feel like tonight is a great time for the Diamondbacks to get back on track and get a big win over these pesky Dodgers. When it comes to this starting pitching matchup, Arizona does have a slight edge.
They’ll be starting Merrill Kelly, who holds an ERA of 3.21 and has had a strong winning season with a 9-5 record. The Dodgers will be starting Bobby Miller tonight, who has also been solid this season with a 4.26 ERA. The experience of 34-year-old Kelly should give the Diamondbacks a slight advantage at home tonight. When it comes to key hitters, the Dodgers have lead off man Mookie Betts, who has 31 home runs on the year, and Freddie Freeman. Freeman has been outstanding with a .343 batting average and 81 RBI. On the other side, we have some Arizona hitters who are looking to heat up in August. Christian Walker has 23 homers, and tonight seems like a good night to add on to that. Arizona also has Ketel Marte hitting .284 on the season. I like the Diamondbacks to jump on Bobby Miller early tonight and never look back, snapping their losing streak.
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