Ricky Dimon
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The MLB week – the first full one since the all-star break – continues with a full 15-game slate on Tuesday. It is highlighted by a TBS-televised showdown between the Dodgers and Orioles at 7:05 pm ET. Other matchups worth watching include Tampa Bay at Texas, Arizona at Atlanta and Minnesota at Seattle. Below is my MLB mega parlay for Tuesday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks in addition to my MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets.
Orioles -1.5 (+155)
Reds ML (+115)
Braves -1.5 (-110)
MLB parlay odds: +947
For this MLB parlay, we are going with 2 favorites on the run line and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over LA Dodgers (+155)
The Orioles had won 8 games in a row before falling to the Dodgers on Monday. I expect order to be restored in the second game of the series, in which Tyler Wells will be taking the mound for Baltimore. Wells is sporting a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He ranks in the 78th percentile for xBA, 64th percentile for K% and 86th percentile for BB%. In his last 8 starts, Wells hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs on any occasion.
Los Angeles is countering with Michael Grove, who has a 1-2 record with a 6.89 ERA. His percentiles are not good; he currently sits in the 15th percentile for xBA, 15th percentile for xSLG, 34th percentile for K% and 45th percentile for hard-hit rate. Grove has allowed 4 or more runs 6 out of 9 times when he has pitched more than 3.0 innings. Count on the O’s getting back on track.
Cincinnati Reds ML over San Francisco Giants (+115)
Admittedly, Luke Weaver toeing the rubber for Cincinnati does not inspire much confidence. That being said, getting the Reds well into plus money represents good value given the situation. The Giants are sending Anthony DeSclafani to the mound and he has not pitched since July 1 due to being on the injured list with a shoulder injury. DeSclafani is 4-8 with a 4.44 ERA so far this season and his ERA is teetering close to 7.00 over his past 6 outings.
It is true that the Reds’ offense has been anemic since the all-star break, but Jonathan India is 3-for-3 with a homer in the current game that started on Monday and was suspended until Tuesday because of rain. Perhaps that will get India going and ignite the team as a whole, especially if it can dig out a win in the resumption (currently 2-2 in the top of the eighth). Give me the Reds in the nightcap.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (-110)
The Braves are coming off a rare series loss, but the bottom line is they are the best team in baseball. There is no reason why they shouldn’t be able to bounce back from an underwhelming performance against the White Sox. Atlanta has still won 13 of its last 17 overall and is 17-3 in its last 20 at home. Meanwhile, this club is 6-1 in its last 7 against Arizona and the Diamondbacks are 2-8 in their last 10 overall.
Zach Davies is starting for the Snakes and he is saddled with a 6.37 ERA through 11 starts with a 1-5 record. He is by far the worst pitcher on an otherwise solid Diamondbacks staff. He will be opposed by Bryce Elder, who boasts a 2.97 ERA through 18 starts with a 7-2 record. Given that the Braves also feature a much better offense, this contest should be one-way traffic at Truist Park in Atlanta.
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