We’ve made it to the travel or rest day for most teams as Thursday’s MLB slate features just 8 games being played. The action starts very early in the day with a 12:35 pm ET first pitch in Pittsburgh and concludes with a 10:10 pm ET start in Los Angeles. Below is my MLB mega parlay for Thursday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today.
Braves vs Pirates alternate over 10.5 (+122)
Twins -1.5 (+112)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+114)
MLB Parlay odds: +907
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Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 10.5 (+122)
Thursday’s series finale will feature the newly acquired Bailey Falter against the slumping Bryce Elder. Falter started the season with the Phillies but lost his spot in the rotation after posting an 0-7 record with a 5.13 ERA. He’s found his way across the state and is now a member of the Pirates, and he will get his chance to make an impact in a very young rotation. In his first start with Pittsburgh last week, Falter threw 4 innings and surrendered just 1 run on 6 hits. Milwaukee hitters had a .375 average and a .306 xBA against the lefty in that outing, so it’s safe to say his weakness of being hittable is still as prevalent as ever. Obviously, that’s a problem against any team, but Falter is facing an Atlanta lineup that has a .279 batting average, .849 OPS and 126 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since July 1.
Bryce Elder was in the running for the ERA title for a few weeks in June and July, but he’s far out of the race by now. Elder has a 5.85 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP in 4 starts since the break and has been much more susceptible to extra-base hits. Of the 22 hits he’s allowed in the second half of the season, 4 have gone over the fence. Two of those 4 long balls were in his most recent start at Wrigley Field which saw him get shelled for 7 runs and 7 hits in just 4.1 innings. Although the Pirates’ lineup doesn’t have the star power that Chicago’s does, they beat the Braves in the series opener, nearly won in game 2 and then knocked around Max Fried on Wednesday night. Both offenses are hot right now, and for that reason, I’m taking the over on an alternate total.
Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (+112)
Kenta Maeda has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since returning from his injury. The right-hander made 4 starts in April before landing on the injured list with a right triceps strain. Before he got hurt, Maeda wasn’t having the best season. He was 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP and ended up missing nearly 2 months of action. But when Maeda returned, he was not the same pitcher. The veteran has a 2.47 ERA in 8 starts since coming off the injured list. His first start back came against this same Tigers team in Detroit, and Maeda threw 5 scoreless innings and allowed just 3 hits while striking out 8 batters. He’s throwing his fastball less than ever and relying on lots of junk — and it’s working beautifully.
I found myself gravitating toward Reese Olson a lot in July, but now I’m staying far away from him. Olson seemed to find a groove in late June and early July as he surrendered just 5 earned runs over a span of 5 appearances against several solid offenses. However, since those 5 outings, Olson has surrendered 13 runs and 20 hits in his last 3 starts. During those 3 outings, Olson allowed a .294 batting average, a .311 xBA and 6 barrels. It’s clear that teams have figured him out and to spit on his slider to get to his fastball and sinker. If Minnesota can give Maeda 4 runs of support, then I’m very confident that they can cover their run line as well.
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Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 over Cleveland Guardians (+114)
Noah Syndergaard hasn’t exactly made the best first impression for Guardians fans. In 2 starts since being acquired at the trade deadline, Thor has surrendered 6 runs, 11 hits and 4 home runs in just 11.1 innings. The home run part is not too surprising since Syndergaard ranks in the 2nd percentile in xBA, 4th percentile in xSLG and 31st percentile in barrel rate. But digging deeper into his 2 starts with the Guardians, Syndergaard allowed a .328 xBA, 43% hard-hit rate and has just a measly 6% strikeout rate. A change of scenery has not seemed to change Syndergaard’s results which has led me to fading him once more.
Alright, fine, I’ll admit it — Alek Manoah hasn’t been that bad. When the failed ace returned to the rotation at the beginning of July, I was determined to fade him as I expected his poor numbers to continue. However, Manoah has improved a lot since his disastrous start to the season. He’s allowed more than 3 runs in just 1 of his last 5 starts and has been somewhat better about walks. During his 5 starts since rejoining the Jays, Manoah has held hitters to a .221 batting average, .228 xBA and a 22% strikeout rate which are all far better marks than he had before he was demoted. I’m starting to gain some faith in Manoah, so let’s hope he doesn’t burn me now.
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