Ricky Dimon
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The Major League Baseball week continues with a full 15-game slate on Tuesday. It is headlined by a rare 11:05 am ET start time for the Reds and Nationals, plus there are 9 other afternoon specials on this July 4 holiday. All in all, there are plenty of options with which to come up with some YRFI/NRFI plays as we try to celebrate Independence Day in style.
This market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my best YRFI/NRFI bets for Tuesday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today’s games.
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Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-104)
Both teams should like their chances of pitching a clean first inning in this afternoon showdown between National League Central rivals. Wade Miley will begin the game on the mound for hosts Milwaukee and he has not allowed a run at any point – in any inning – during 2 of his last 3 appearances. This stretch also includes a clean opening frame against the Mets this past week. The Brewers have given up a grand total of 3 runs combined in their last 3 contests started by Miley. Now they face a Cubs squad that is fourth-to-last in all of Major League Baseball in first-inning runs scored.
The Brewers are better (11th-most runs scored in the first inning), but they have to face Kyle Hendricks on Tuesday. Hendricks has been awesome since joining the rotation in late May, compiling a 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The right-hander has surrendered a run in the opening frame just once in his last 6 outings.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays: YRFI (+106)
At plus money, the YRFI has great value as Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin prepares to face his former team. Despite having been teammates with most of the Philadelphia batters, many of them have some head-to-head experience from their stints with other clubs. Trea Turner is 7-for-23 (.304) lifetime against Eflin with 2 home runs and a double; Bryce Harper is 5-for-9 (.556) with 2 doubles; Kyle Schwarber has compiled a career cycle at Eflin’s expense in only 11 at-bats. Meanwhile, the right-hander has allowed a first-inning run in an alarming 3 of his last 7 starts.
The Phillies are countering with Aaron Nola, who has not been his normal self in 2023 (4.51 ERA). Nobody on the Brewers has done anything against Nola in the past, but this Milwaukee lineup cannot be discounted since it is #11 in baseball in first-inning runs scored. The Phillies are even better, ranking fifth overall when it comes to helping out the YRFI. Again, at this price, you have to like someone crossing the plate right away.
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