MLB picks Thursday, 8/3 - YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Not in his Houser

The week in Major League Baseball continues with an 11-game slate on Thursday. It includes 5 afternoon contests that precede a pair of regionally televised showdowns on FOX at 7:15 pm ET (Houston at the Yankees and Pittsburgh at Milwaukee). Needless to say, there is plenty to work with in an effort to come up with some successful YRFI/NRFI bets.

The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning. Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Thursday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today’s 11 games.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-111)

Mitch Keller has cooled off a bit of late for Pittsburgh, but he is still 9-7 with a 3.97 ERA this season. He also gets to face a Milwaukee club that is 13th in Major League Baseball in first-inning runs scored and has gone 3 straight games without crossing the plate in the opening frame. The Brewers are countering with Adrian Houser, who has made 6 consecutive appearances without being victimized in the first. This stretch includes 2 perfect opening frames against none other than the Atlanta Braves. When you are shutting down the Braves (who lead the league in first-inning runs by a country mile) at the beginning of games, you are doing something right.

Nobody on the Pirates has done much of anything against Houser. Only Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes have more than 1 hit in their careers against him; Reynolds is 5-for-18 lifetime (.278) and Hayes is 3-for-14 (.214). It should also be noted that Pittsburgh is second-to-last in all of baseball in first-inning runs scored, ahead of only the New York Mets.

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Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals: NRFI (+100)

Sonny Gray is toeing the rubber on Thursday and that is generally good news for the Twins. He is sporting a 3.22 ERA this year and has made 2 consecutive quality starts. It’s also good news for NRFI bettors. The veteran right-hander has pitched clean opening frames in 6 straight outings. Gray has not allowed a single first-inning run on the road since the Boston Red Sox got him for 1 way back on April 18.

Opposing Gray is Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals. Although Liberatore does not inspire much confidence, he does have 1 thing going for him. This is an interleague matchup and not 1 player on the entire Twins roster has ever faced him. Minnesota is nothing special when it comes to the first inning (11th in MLB in such scoring) and has gone 6 consecutive contests without plating a run in the opener. At plus money (albeit right on the number), there is good value with the NRFI.

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