Ricky Dimon
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The Major League Baseball week continues with a 12-game slate on Thursday. There are a handful of teams that are in between series, but nonetheless we have plenty of options with which to work. The schedule is headlined by 3 afternoon contests plus an evening slate that includes Phillies vs Rays and Orioles vs Yankees.
This market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my best YRFI/NRFI bets for Thursday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today’s games.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-130)
The Marlins scored 4 first-inning runs on Wednesday; Eury Perez, Miami’s Thursday starter, gave up 6 runs without even making it out of the first inning in his most recent start. So why is the NRFI the play? Well, these 2 teams combined for 21 runs in their third game of the series. You just know when 2 teams go crazy the day before, the next day it’s basically a scoreless pitchers’ duel. But this is more than just a gut feeling. Perez was facing the Braves when he got pounded last week, and the Braves do that to everyone. They lead all of baseball by a country mile in first-inning runs at 1.02 per game, whereas the Cardinals are averaging just 0.42 on the road. Moreover, Perez is still 5-2 with 2.47 ERA. The 20-year-old has been pretty much dominant this season aside from that lone aberration against Atlanta.
The Cardinals are countering with Jack Flaherty, who has surrendered a first-inning run only twice in his last 8 starts. Two of his last 4 outings have seen him go 6.0 innings without allowing a single run at any point. Flaherty now faces a Miami club that is second-to-last in first-inning runs scored at 0.34 per game.
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Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox: NRFI (+104)
Kutter Crawford will be toeing the rubber for Boston to get this game underway. Since rejoining the rotation at the beginning of June, Crawford has pitched a clean first inning in 4 of his 5 appearances. The right-hander now faces a Texas team that may lead Major League Baseball in total runs scored but is a modest 10th in first-inning runs and averages just 0.39 away from home.
Nathan Eovaldi is going for the visitors. The veteran righty is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.99 WHIP so far this season and has given up a run in the opening frame just once in his past 12 starts. The Red Sox are #23 in the league in first-inning runs scored and their lineup is a combined 2-for-11 lifetime against Eovaldi with zero extra-base hits. At plus-money odds, the NRFI has great value.
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