Ricky Dimon
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We are getting another week in Major League Baseball started with a 12-game slate on Monday. It includes the conclusion of a 4-game series between the Dodgers and Padres, which is the lone afternoon contest on today’s schedule. As for the evening lineup, Miami is paying a visit to Cincinnati and the Angels are hosting San Francisco.
Below is my MLB mega parlay for Monday, and also be sure to check out our MLB picks for every game in addition to our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets, for which we’re on an 11-3 run!
Twins -1.5 (-102)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+122)
Angels ML (+106)
MLB parlay odds: +806
For this parlay, we are going with 2 favorites on the run line and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (-102)
There is one primary reason why I like the Twins on Monday: Pablo Lopez is toeing the rubber. Lopez has been excellent of late with a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Going back a little bit farther, the right-hander ended June with 6.0 innings of 1-run baseball against Baltimore and began July with a complete-game shutout of Kansas City. His 3.29 xERA and 3.41 xFIP compared to his 4.01 ERA shows he is in for some positive regression, too, and it looks like we are seeing that over his most recent stretch of games. Lopez falls in the 75th percentile or better in xSLG, xBA and chase rate matched up against a Tigers lineup that ranks 24th in K% against righties. For Detroit, Joey Wentz is saddled with a 2-9 record and a horrendous 6.37 ERA. There’s no need to overthink this one.
Be sure to check out our full Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers predictions
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 over Cleveland Guardians (+122)
The Blue Jays are hot following a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend and I think they have a great chance to keep things rolling. Up next are the Guardians, who have lost 7 of their last 9 contests. Gavin Williams’ numbers are pretty good for Cleveland, but his xERA stands at 4.53 and he ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in walk rate. Over his last 18.0 innings, Williams has given out a ridiculous 14 free passes. This probably won’t be a pitchers’ duel since Toronto is countering with a rusty Hyun Jin Ryu, but the bats are in fine form and that leads me to believe that a multi-run victory is in the cards. The Jays scored 25 runs during their sweep of the Red Sox and won those games by a combined margin of 17 runs.
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LA Angels ML over San Francisco Giants (+106)
An extreme sense of urgency exists within the Angels’ organization to win, make the postseason and even make noise in said postseason. That was obvious when they took Shohei Ohtani off the trading block. However, since the trade deadline, they have lost all 6 of their games. The long term looks bleak, but Los Angeles should at least be able to temporarily end its skid tonight. Patrick Sandoval is on the mound and that is generally good news for the Halos. He owns a 3.93 ERA through 19 starts and has been especially impressive in his last 4 outings to the tune of a 1.61 ERA during this stretch. Logan Webb is no slouch for the Giants, but at plus-money odds the Angels have good value.
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