Ricky Dimon
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The weekend in Major League Baseball is getting underway with a full 15-game slate on Friday. It includes a pair of contests on Apple TV, starting with Milwaukee visiting Pittsburgh before the LA Angels host Arizona. Also on the menu is an intriguing showdown between Miami and Atlanta plus a matchup featuring Houston and Texas. Below is my MLB mega parlay, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks in addition to my MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets.
Twins -1.5 (+160)
Braves -1.5 (+105)
Astros ML (+150)
MLB parlay odds: +1233
For this parlay, we are going with 2 favorites on the run line and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Baltimore Orioles (+160)
This game features 2 pitchers whose results do not match their metrics, but in very opposite ways. Pablo Lopez of the Twins should be getting far better results than his 4.41 ERA indicates. He is fourth in Major League Baseball in strikeouts behind Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman and Shohei Ohtani. Some metrics suggest that Lopez’s ERA is a full run — maybe even run and a half — higher than it should be.
Meanwhile, Dean Kremer of the Orioles is pretty much the opposite. Kremer owns a 4.50 ERA but the metrics suggest that he should be giving up a lot more runs. He doesn’t impress me a whole lot and there is no way he is striking any fear into Minnesota’s lineup. Moreover, the Twins boast a better bullpen; so even if this contest is close for a while, they should still have the edge.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+105)
The Braves are an absolute juggernaut right now. They are an amazing 20-3 in their last 23 games, giving themselves the best overall record in the National League by a country mile. I would back them to win and also cover almost any run line against anyone who isn’t throwing an ace, and the Marlins are not sending their ace today (Eury Perez is scheduled to go tomorrow, although Miami may give him some time off heading into the All-Star Game to give him some extended rest).
Bryan Hoeing is toeing the rubber for the Marlins and only 4 of his 18 appearances this year have been starts. This will probably be more of a bullpen game for the Fish, and it’s hard to see them piecing enough good innings from relievers against what is arguably the best lineup in baseball. Michael Soroka is a bit of a wild card for the Braves, but he has been effective in the minors of late and should be more prepared for his second go-around in the bigs this season.
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Houston Astros ML over Texas Rangers (+150)
The defending World Series champions trail in the AL West by 5 games, so it’s safe to say that the motivation level is high heading into this series. I think the Astros have a good chance to chip away at the Rangers’ lead tonight. Houston is using a converted bullpen arm in Ronel Blanco. He has been just fine in his 4 starts, throwing 5 or 6 innings each time. Blanco has yielded 2, 5, 3 and 2 runs in those starts. With a strong offense behind him, that is good enough most days. The Rangers’ offense is much better than most, but Blanco can hold his own.
Jon Gray is a stellar pitcher for Texas, but if the Astros can get to him just a little bit and work the pitch count then they can see the Rangers’ bullpen throughout the latter stages of the game – and it isn’t a great bullpen. Houston has great value as a big underdog.
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