MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 17 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

The Angels and Orioles continue their 4-game series in Baltimore after winning once each so far. Both games saw a lot of runs scored, even with Shohei Ohtani on the mound for Los Angeles in the first game. The Angels start Griffin Canning, who has given up at least 2 earned runs in every start he’s made and at least 3 earned runs in 3 straight starts, failing to get past the 5th inning each time. Griffin allows lefties to bat .293 with an .843 OPS and the Orioles are one of the heavier left-handed lineups in baseball.

The Angels will face Kyle Bradish, who hasn’t fared well in his home ballpark in his short career, posting an ERA of 5.00 last year and in 2 home starts this season he has an ERA of 7.56. All of the runs he allowed came in a start against Boston, but his other start was against the Pirates, who have lost 12 of their last 14. Runs are coming early and often. Both of these bullpens are good, so I’m a little cautious of the late innings, but let’s go over 9.

The Braves and Rangers close out the rubber match of their 3-game set at Globe Life Field in Texas. The teams combined for 12 runs in their first game and 11 runs last night. Spencer Strider takes the ball for Atlanta. He lost his last start in Toronto, but gave up only 1 earned run. Strider had control problems to start the season, walking at least 3 batters in 4 of his first 6 starts, but he has walked only 4 batters over his last 4 starts. Strider has actually been better on the road this year with just a 1.90 ERA.

Texas starts Nathan Eovaldi, who has been very good and has a 28.2-inning scoreless streak coming into this start, including starts against the Yankees and Angels. The Braves offense is one of the best in baseball, so I don’t think Eovaldi will be able to keep those bats silent for a long time, but it could be long enough for both of these starters to get through the lineup once without giving up a run. Let’s go under 3.5 in the first 5 innings at plus-money with Caesars.

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The Dodgers and Twins finish up their 3-game series in Los Angeles after splitting the opening games. Los Angeles will send Dustin Gray to the mound, who has been nothing short of fantastic to start the season with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He has given up 2 or fewer runs in each of his last 4 starts. The Twins bats have cooled off a bit in May after hitting .234 in April, and they are down to just .220 over the first 14 games this month.

Minnesota will counter with Sonny Gray, who has been equally as fantastic, sporting a 1.39 ERA alongside a 1.08 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in just 45.1 innings. He has allowed more than 1 earned run just once this season. This is a 12:10 pm local time first pitch after a night game last night on a getaway day, so it’s likely that players won’t get to the ballpark much earlier than batting practice. I expect a sluggish start for both offenses against these really sharp pitchers. Let’s go under 4.5 in the first 5 innings.