We’ve got another loaded week of MLB action in store for us and I’ve picked out the 3 plays I like most on Tuesday’s baseball slate. I went 3-0 with my Friday picks, so let’s hope for more of the same this time out.
Today I am targeting a couple of first 5-inning plays and a money line bet, so let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks. Remember to also check out our MLB predictions for the whole of Tuesday’s slate.
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Under 4.5 runs in first 5 innings of Cubs vs Pirates (-120, FanDuel)
Marcus Stroman continues to be in top form. He’s won 6 consecutive starts and he’s had just 2 starts this whole season where he’s allowed more than 2 earned runs. Both of those starts were the only starts where he didn’t go at least five innings. The Pirates offense at home in the month of June has been in the top half of the league batting average, OPS and wRC+. They also have the highest walk rate at home this month. But Pittsburgh opponents at home this month have been the Cardinals, the Athletics and the Mets. Still, Stroman will have to have his best stuff to limit them and I think he does. Let’s go under 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings.
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Los Angeles Dodgers first 5 innings ML over Angels (-140, FanDuel)
The Angels host the Dodgers in the “Freeway Series” in southern California. Reid Detmers will start for the Angels, and he’s once again facing a lineup that handles left-handed pitching really well. The Dodgers, are top 10 in most of the major offensive categories, much like the Cubs and Rangers. Prior to his last 2 starts against Chicago and Texas, Detmers had a 5.15 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Regression is coming for Detmers, as his last couple of starts are a departure from his career 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Dodgers have hit the most home runs against left-handers on the road this season. Prior to his last 2 starts, the Angels lost 5 of his 6 start by at least 2 runs.
The Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw who has seen a resurgence in 2023. He’s also facing an Angels lineup that struggled with lefty pitching this month batting just .211 and .250 on batting average on balls-in-play. The Dodgers offense should do more than enough here early against Detmers and Kershaw should be able to keep the Angels at bay for the first 5 innings.
Atlanta Braves ML over Philadelphia Phillies (-145, FanDuel)
Atlanta and Philadelphia start a three-game series in Philadelphia. Spencer Strider starts for the Braves. Strider just simply isn’t as effective as he was last year. He’s already walked 30 batters in 14 starts this season, compared to 32 walks in 20 starts last season. Strider has also allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts and has an ERA of 9.00 in the month of June. We can’t eliminate the possibility of Strider pitching a gem, especially against the Phillies. He already went six innings and gave up just two runs on two hits. Strider also dominated Philadelphia last year. He went 4-0, pitching 21.1 innings, allowing just 7 hits, 3 earned runs and striking out 34 batters.
The Braves also dominate left-handed pitching, especially on the road. The own the highest slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+ in the majors, while hitting the second most home runs. That’s not good news for Ranger Suarez, who starts for Philadelphia. Suarez has a 6.92 ERA at home versus a 2.19 ERA on the road. However, he’s been very good in his starts in June, allowing just 2 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. Still, the Braves offense is too much for pretty much any starter in the game. Atlanta also owns the best road record in baseball, so we’ll back them to win against their division rivals.
Check out today’s MLB mega parlay, and YRFI/NRFI best bets
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