MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 29 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

The Boston Red Sox close out their 3-game series with the Miami Marlins at Fenway looking to avoid a sweep. Boston’s offense, which has been incredible at home this season, has been stymied in the first two games. Coming into this series, on the season, the Boston offense at home was batting .291, which is the best in baseball. Their OPS is .836, which trails only the Texas Rangers, and their wRC+ is 121, which is 3rd-best in baseball, 21% better than average. They have also scored the 3rd-most runs in baseball at home this season trailing only Texas and Tampa Bay. In the first two games combined, they scored only 3 runs, left 13 men on base and were 2-10 with runners in scoring position. Some positive regression should be coming in the series finale. Finally, the Red Sox start Brayan Bello, who since May 1 has given up more than 2 earned runs just once in 9 starts and failed to get through 5 innings only once.

The Marlins will start lefty Jesus Luzardo, whose road splits are bad. His ERA is 5.45 and he has a 1.52 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting .309 against him this season. Luzardo’s numbers are also a bit deceiving as his last 4 starts were against the Pirates, Nationals, Mariners and Royals. All of those teams are in the bottom 10 in OPS this season. Luzardo has also allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 7 starts. If you believe in situational look-ahead spots in baseball, the Marlins start a series with the 1st-place Braves tomorrow in Atlanta and the Braves have pretty much owned the Marlins over the past few seasons. Miami could be looking toward that series. Lastly, the Red Sox bullpen has been worked the last few days after getting blown out on Tuesday and a rain delay last night. If Boston doesn’t score early, it may continue that they don’t score at all.

The Mets and Brewers end their 4-game series with the Mets still in panic mode and desperately needing a win to split the series. Max Scherzer will be on the mound, making just his fifth home start of the season. Scherzer got banged around in his last home start against the Yankees but is still allowing opposing hitters to bat only .211 against him at Citi Field. In his 3 other home starts combined, he went 18 innings, allowed just 9 hits and 1 earned run. I think we will get a stellar outing from Mad Max tonight, especially because they need him to go deep in the game with their bullpen being taxed heavily over the last few games.

Milwaukee will start Adrian Houser, who is being re-inserted into the starting rotation after inconsistency dropped him to the bullpen. He has made 2 relief appearances this month. His last start was on June 9 against the A’s, when he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings. Houser carries at 1.54 WHIP on the season, so despite the Mets’ offensive struggles, they will have opportunities with men on base. The Mets active roster against Houser is batting a collective .360 against him as well. Despite the fact that I think Scherzer will go deep into the game, it’s the Mets and trusting them for 9 innings isn’t something I want to stomach. So let’s go Mets money line in the first 5 innings.

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While I am backing the Mets on the money line in the first 5 innings and I think they will win the game as well, I’ll also look to a prop in this game and it’s the no-run-first-inning between the Mets and the Brewers. Scherzer is on the mound and he’s facing one of the better-scoring 1st inning teams in Milwaukee, who are 10th in MLB. I think Scherzer will have a great start and be able to get through the first inning unscathed. Batters are hitting only .204 against him the first time through the order, although we will have to be weary of Christian Yelich, who has a career .297 average against Scherzer with 3 home runs.

Milwaukee will counter with Adrian Houser, who is returning to the starting rotation after being demoted to the bullpen. He’s facing a Mets lineup that is dead last in baseball in first-inning runs scored. Now Houser brings his own set of concerns with opposing hitters batting a gaudy .343 against him the first time through the order. So there is certainly a risk involved that has to be acknowledged, but the Mets offensive woes are enough for me to roll the dice in this spot.

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