MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 26 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

The Braves return home to face the Twins in a 3-game series. Spencer Strider is on the mound for Atlanta. It’s been documented that Strider hasn’t been the same starter as last year, but he was excellent last time out against the Phillies, and he looks prime for another dominant start against a Twins lineup that struggles on the road. Minnesota is bottom 5 in runs, batting average and OPS on the road this season. The Twins also have the second highest strikeout rate on the road this season, which is not a good thing against one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. The one concern is Strider keeping the ball in the ballpark. He’s allowed 12 home runs this year and the Twins are tied for 12th in road home runs this season.

Minnesota will start Sonny Gray. Gray is starting to regress from his impressive start to the season. After a 0.71 ERA in April, his ERA has been just under four the last two months. In June, his ERA is 3.92 and his WHIP is 1.58. He’s only struck out 15 batters in 20.2 innings while not exactly facing high-level offenses. The Braves also give Strider some of the best run support in baseball at 6.8 runs per start. Both of these bullpens are good, but both were worked hard over the weekend. Atlanta has won 13 of Strider’s 15 starts this season and they will do it again.

The Texas Rangers return home after their series with the Yankees to face the Detroit Tigers. It was a lackluster offensive series for Texas where they only scored 7 total runs. They will face left-hander Matthew Boyd tonight and I expect that they will take out their offensive frustrations on him. The Rangers have hit left-handed pitching very well, especially at home. They are top 3 in MLB against lefties at home in runs, batting average, OPS and wRC+. The Rangers have already faced Boyd this season and tagged him for 5 runs in 5 innings.

Additionally, the Rangers will start Andrew Heaney who has the best run support in all of baseball this season averaging 7.71 runs per start. Finally, you add it the fact that the Tigers bullpen used six relievers yesterday, Texas should be able to tack on a few later if needed. You can’t keep this Rangers offense quiet for too long and they remind us tonight why they have the best run differential in baseball. Rangers team total over 4.5 runs.

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The Angels host the White Sox for a four-game series in Anaheim. Los Angeles will start Reid Detmers, who’s put together a trio of dominant starts against the Cubs, Rangers and Dodgers. Detmers threw 18.2 innings, allowed just 2 earned runs and struck out 24. For all the White Sox offensive woes this season, they’ve actually been middle-of-the-road against lefties on the road this season, including being 13th in baseball in wRC+. Plus, the White Sox are 7th in baseball in total home runs with 91. Still, I’ll bank of if the White Sox do get to Detmers, it won’t be much.

Chicago will start Dylan Cease who has been better than his numbers suggest, especially as of late. In June, Cease has made 4 starts with a 2.38 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and opposing hitters are batting just .185 against him. Cease has also struck out 32 batters in 22.2 innings this month. Cease faced the Angels last year and went seven innings of one-hit baseball striking out 11. He can keep this Angels lineup at bay, especially early as opposing hitters are batting .197 against him the first time through the order. Let’s go under 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings.

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