MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 16 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

Cleveland just finished a series in San Diego where they lost 2 of 3 to the Padres. The Guardians offense has been inconsistent at best this year, but on the road they are bottom 5 in home runs, slugging percentage, wRC+ and walk percentage. Cleveland starts Triston McKenzie, who is making his third start of the season since coming off the injured list. His first start was very good but his second wasn’t. It’s tough to forecast how McKenzie will pitch, but he’s got great stuff. I trust the Diamondbacks lineup to an extent, but I’ll give the nod to McKenzie to get through the order at least once with little damage. Last year opposing hitters batted .199 the first time through the order.

The Yankees and Red Sox play a weekend series for the second weekend in a row, but this time in Boston. The previous 3 games all stayed under with no more than 5 runs being scored in any game. We will get the same starters from last weekend in Domingo German for the Yankees and Tanner Houck for the Red Sox and both went 6 innings. German gave up 6 hits and 1 run, while Houck gave up 3 hits and 2 runs, both solo shots. The balls were pretty hard-hit on both sides while the starters were in the game. There were a few “loud outs” that felt like the first 5 innings could have gone over the total.

The familiarity with these starters is what makes me feel like a first 5 over is coming. Combine that with German’s 4.20 ERA on the road, compared with 2.92 at home, and Houck’s 6.19 ERA at Fenway, it should be the first time the bats wake up between these teams. I know the Yankees lineup without Judge has been bad and they aren’t scoring, but Fenway is one of the higher scoring parks in baseball. I like the total to go over in the first 5.

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I’ll take another crack at a No Run First Inning, this time between the White Sox and Mariners. Chicago just finished a series against the Dodgers in which they lost 2 of 3, which makes me feel like they are in a bit of a double let-down spot overall. They start Michael Kopech, who may have got rid of his inconsistencies from earlier in the season. Over his last 5 starts, he’s pitched 31.1 innings, allowed just 6 earned runs, walked only 5 and didn’t allow a first-inning run in 4 of them.

The Mariners start Bryan Woo. The rookie is making his third start of his career and his first at home. In his first two starts, Woo faced two of the best lineups in baseball in the Rangers and Angels. He managed to escape one of them without a first-inning run. I’m banking on his first start at home giving him more comfort, especially after the team had an off-day yesterday. Plus the White Sox are in the bottom 5 in the majors in batting average on the road this season. Woo has got swing-and-miss stuff and he should be able to clear the top of Chicago’s order in the first inning.

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