Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP previews the D-backs vs Brewers game with a decent payout at +450 odds. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this D-backs vs Brewers Same Game Parlay.
Diamondbacks ML (+105)
Zac Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Under 0.5 first inning runs (-130)
Dimondbacks vs Brewers Same Game Parlay: (+450)
Diamondbacks ML (+105)
The D-backs stole Game 1 last night after sending out Brandon Pfaadt in the starting role, but tonight they have their ace on the mound in Zac Gallen. Gallen had a tremendous regular season, registering a 3.47 ERA alongside 220 strikeouts. In 2 starts against Milwaukee, Gallen has gone a combined 14.0 innings, while allowing just 1 run. Gallen’s numbers slightly regressed towards the end of the season, but his last 2 starts ended on a high note, allowing just 2 earned runs across 12.1 innings.
For the Brewers, it’ll be right hander Freddy Peralta taking the mound. Through 30 regular season starts, Peralta recorded a 3.86 ERA but has yet to see this Arizona lineup. Peralta’s underlying metrics have been above average, including a 30.9% strikeout rate, but the Brewers are going to need some serious length from Peralta to keep this series alive. Last night, Corbin Burnes lasted just 4.0 innings, forcing the Brew Crew to use 6 different relief pitchers. I think the D-backs have the edge here tonight to send the Brewers packing early.
Zac Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Zac Gallen may strikeout batters at a lower clip than Freddy Peralta with his 26.0% strikeout rate, but that still ranks in the 71st percentile. In addition to that, Gallen has recorded more than 5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings. However, the main reason I like the over in this spot is Gallen’s track record against the Brewers this season. Gallen has gone 7.0 innings in each of his 2 outings against the Brewers and has recorded a combined 15 strikeouts. I think Gallen goes deep into this game and gives himself plenty of opportunities to rack up the punchouts.
Under 0.5 first inning runs (-130)
This parlay is beginning to take a theme, and that theme rides on the success of Zac Gallen tonight. As stated before, Gallen has dominated the Brewers’ lineup this season, and I’m expecting another solid performance tonight. Not only has Gallen dominated the Brewers, but he’s found success in the first inning this season. Gallen owns a 3.18 ERA in the first inning this season with a 6.33 strikeout to walk ratio. I’d expect Gallen to get right to work in this one.
Likewise, Freddy Peralta has been effective in the first inning of ballgames this season. Peralta’s .160 first inning opposing batting average is lower than any other inning, and he possesses elite strikeout stuff. Peralta’s strikeout rate and whiff rate are both in the 92nd percentile, and I’m expecting a quite first inning in Milwaukee.
