Ricky Dimon
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The Final Four is finally here – and it’s not four that anyone could have expected. At #4, UConn is the highest-seeded team remaining. The Huskies will go up against #5 Miami in Saturday’s nightcap after an even more improbable matchup pits #5 San Diego State against #9 Florida Atlantic.
Below is my SGP for Saturday’s second national semifinal game, and also be sure to check out all of our NCAAB picks.
Miami ML (+210)
Under 149.5 (-115)
Isaiah Wong Over 17.5 points (+146)
Parlay odds: +1031
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the some of the plan here, as Isaiah Wong pouring in a bunch of points would obviously work well with a Miami victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with combining Wong’s over with overall game totals under. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Miami ML over UConn (+210)
Miami is rolling. Nobody is more battle tested than the ‘Canes, who survived an always dangerous 5-12 matchup with Creighton, took care of #4 seed Indiana, ousted #1 Houston and then produced a second-half comeback from double-digits down to defeat a red-hot Texas team. This is head coach Jim Larranaga’s second trip to the Final Four, having taken underdog George Mason there 17 years ago (2006, for those counting). Of this year’s coaching corps in the national semis, Larranaga is the one I’m not betting against. It is true that the Huskies are also looking good, but they are only a #4 seed for a reason. Their overall body of work is solid but unspectacular; not better than Miami’s, really. An upset wouldn’t shock me in the least.
Under 149.5 (-115)
Miami’s offense may be the strong suit of the team, but don’t sleep on its defense. It knows how to put the clamps down when necessary. Giving up 81 and 75 points to Texas and Houston, respectively, is not too alarming given the firepower of those 2 opponents. The Hurricanes limited Indiana to 69 points and Drake to 56 earlier in the Big Dance. They will really have to defend on Saturday, because UConn’s defense is outstanding and the Huskies will want to make this a relatively low-scoring affair. Head coach Danny Hurley’s team ranks eighth in BartTorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency in March. KenPom has the Huskies ranked 204th in adjusted tempo and 239th in average possession length. So not only do they play great defense, but they also don’t have to guard opponents for a sizable number of possessions. That combination is a recipe for low scores. UConn held Iona and Gonzaga to fewer than 65 during its trip to the Final Four.
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Isaiah Wong Over 17.5 points (+146)
UConn is excellent defensively. It is especially stout near the rim (per Hoop-Math, the Huskies are #27 nationally in field-goal percentage at the rim) and defending the 3-point line (#13 according to Hoop-Math in 3P% defense). One area in which UConn can be somewhat vulnerable is in the mid range, and that is where Wong excels. You also have to like Wong’s chances for success based on his current form. The junior guard has scored at least 20 points in 3 of the last 5 games, including 27 in round 2 of the NCAA Tournament against Indiana.
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