A week ago, the Boston Celtics avoided a 4-game sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals with a dominant Game 4 victory. Little did most of us know that the Celtics would win the next 2 games — including a buzzer-beating putback to win Game 6 — to force a winner-take-all Game 7 in Boston on Sunday.
Can the Celtics complete the first ever 3-0 comeback in NBA history, or will the Heat pull the upset on the road to advance to the NBA Finals? Let’s get into the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions for Game 7 between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Celtics -7.5, Heat +8
Total points over/under: 203.5 points
Money line odds: Celtics -300; Heat +250
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat expert picks
Celtics vs Heat point spread pick: Heat +8 (-110)
The Miami Heat are in a world of trouble after failing to close out the Boston Celtics for the third consecutive game on Saturday. Despite shooting just 35% from the field, the Heat were in the game until the very last second, as they suffered a heartbreaking 1-point defeat thanks to a Derrick White lay-up as time expired. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Gabe Vincent all struggled shooting, and it will take a special effort in Game 7 to pull this series win out now. Defeats like that can be deflating, even for a team as mentally tough as the Heat have been all season.
Boston became only the fourth team in NBA history and the first since the 2003 Portland Trail Blazers to force a Game 7 after falling down 3-0 to start the series. Game 6 was their worst shooting game from 3-point range all season as they converted on just 20% of their attempts. They’ll be upbeat after pulling out that victory, but as the late great Kobe Bryant once said the job is not finished just yet. A total of 150 teams in NBA postseason history have failed to come back from a 3-0 deficit, so these Celtics have an opportunity to achieve something special on Monday. It will be anything but easy, but with the way this series has shaped over the last 3 games they should have the mental edge coming into this game. The spread has been set at 8 points, however, which is a bit too much for my taste. Miami has shown toughness and grit all season, coming back after being written off on so many occasions. I don’t expect them to go away easily, despite ESPN’s Analytics giving them just a 17.9% chance to win. I like the Celtics to advance, but I fancy Miami’s chances to keep it close, so I’ll go with the road team and the extra points.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics predictions
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Celtics vs Heat over/under total pick: Under 203.5 points (-110)
Not a lot of points are expected in Game 7 and the oddsmakers have lowered the total to just 203.5 points, which is the lowest total in the series. Game 6 saw just 207 points scored and the 2nd half was a slug fest with neither team being able to connect a solid run offensively. I expect more of the same in Monday’s game. The Celtics and Heat have played a combined 47 Game 7s in their history and are averaging a combined 195.6 points.
Miami has gone ice cold from three-point land in 2 of their last 3 games of this series, and in Game 6 they connected on only 33 of 93 shots from the field. Boston’s 3-point shooting also went away in Game 6 with just 20% of their shots going in. Defense will be a priority for both teams, so it will be a fun game to watch for those who are nostalgic about the 1990s era of the NBA. I’ll take the under.
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