JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself in being as transparent as they come. My NBA record from last season and this season are listed in my bio alongside my MLB record. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for the NBA Playoffs on Thursday.
Bam Adebayo (MIA) under 16.5 points (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We have a showdown in Philadelphia tonight. The Miami Heat are one win away from the Eastern Conference Finals. In a must-win game for both teams, I am fading Heat big man Bam Adebayo.
Adebayo will again get the Joel Embiid matchup. Like any center guarding Embiid, Adebayo will be vulnerable to picking up easy fouls. Embiid is getting to the line at one of the highest clips in the league. On the offensive end, Adebayo is being very selective with his shots. In Games 1 and 2, Bam single-handedly took Deandre Jordan out of the game. When Embiid returned in Game 3, Bam almost looked scared to get involved offensively and scored 9 points.
Jimmy Butler has carried the Heat throughout this playoff run and there is no reason that should not continue tonight. Butler is hovering around a 30% usage rate while Adebayo is below 20% the last 2 games. Unless Adebayo can convert more than 70% of his field-goal attempts, like he did in Game 5, I do not seeing him hitting this line.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers
Finney-Smith (DAL) over 16.5 points and rebounds (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Dorian Finney-Smith had a peculiar game on Tuesday night. He scored 6 points in the first 5 minutes of the game but was a non-factor after that. He went on to score only 2 more points and reel down 3 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks lost by 30 points, but they get to travel back home for Game 6 where Finney-Smith tends to play much better. He is averaging more than 20 points and rebounds at home this postseason, including going over this line in 4 of 5 games, with the only miss being 15.
Finney-Smith is almost guaranteed to play over 35 minutes. He is one of the league’s best 3-and-D players. Smith is shooting 45% from 3-point range at home this postseason and continues to be a great find in the corner for superstar Luka Doncic. In a win-or-go-home scenario, I expect Finney-Smith to be a huge factor in Dallas getting a win tonight on their home court.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns
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