JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself in being as transparent as they come. My NBA record from last season and this season are listed in my bio alongside with my MLB and NFL record. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Tuesday.
Trae Young (ATL) under 12.5 rebounds and assists (+100)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Trae Young struggled with all aspects of his game on Sunday. His shots were not falling and his assist numbers were severely down. That has a lot to do with the way the #1 seeded Miami Heat has chosen to defend him. They are not doubling or blitzing him off pick-and-rolls and are letting him find his own shot 1 on 1. Without Clint Capela, Young is missing his go-to lob finisher. The Heat are resorting to Young playing 1-on-1 and not letting shooters Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic set their feet for open shots.
With Capela out of the lineup, Young has gone under this line in 5 of 7 games this season, including 3 times against the Heat. In 5 matchups this season, Young has yet to go over this prop. Look for him to put the Hawks on his back with his scoring instead of his playmaking ability tonight.
Check out our full game preview for Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
Steven Adams (MEM) under 6.5 points (-130)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing
This is the worst possible matchup for Memphis’ veteran leader, Steven Adams. He is going against the best shooting big man in history, Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Towns has a unique skillset that even a defender as good as Adams can not guard. Adams does not have the athletic ability to stay with Towns on the perimeter and lacks the mobility to defend him off the dribble.
Memphis is going to have to play Brandon Clarke and Kyle Anderson more to stay with Towns. Adams has gone under this line in all 4 of his games against Towns and the Timberwolves this season, including not taking a single field-goal attempt in Game 1 of this series. I expect Coach of the Year candidate Taylor Jenkins to go small and not ask Adams to play for more than 25 minutes.
Check out our full preview for Timberwolves vs Grizzlies
Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) over 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-125)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Jonas Valanciunas was one of the few bright spots in the Pelicans’ Game 1 loss to the top-seeded Phoenix Suns. He scored 18 points, pulled down 25 rebounds, and dished out 3 assists. Fellow big man De’Andre Ayton struggled to defend Valanciunas on the block, while wing players CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram both shot under 40% from the field.
In the play-in game last Friday, the Pelicans had no choice but to close out the game with a small-ball lineup to defend the Los Angeles Clippers. That should not happen tonight as the Pelicans need Valanciunas’ paint presence to defend Ayton in the post and Chris Paul off the pick-and-roll with his drop coverage.
Valanciunas has gone over this line in 4 of 5 games against the Suns this season, and the only time he fell short he had 32 points, rebounds and assists. I expect another stat-stuffing game for the big man, who will do all he can to even up the series.
Check out our preview for New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns
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