JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself in being as transparent as they come. My NBA record from last season and this season are listed in my bio alongside my MLB record. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Tuesday.
Bam Adebayo (MIA) under 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Bam Adebayo is a special player. He anchors the Miami Heat on defense and has developed into a real threat on offense with his ability to knock down midrange shots off the pick-and-roll.
With that being said, I still think this is a nice spot to fade the Defensive Player of the Year contender. It seems that Adebayo has taken an even deeper back seat to star Jimmy Butler. Butler has attempted over 20 field goal attempts in the last 3 games of this series compared to an average of 15 attempts during the regular season. Kyle Lowry will again be inactive but I do not see Adebayo making up that production. Sharpshooters Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Tyler Herro will probably see their usage increase in Lowry’s absence.
I expect the Atlanta Hawks, with Clint Capela back, to pack the paint especially with the aggression that Butler is playing with — which will bode well for all the shooters the Heat surround Adebayo with.
Check out our full preview for Heat vs Hawks
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) over 23.5 points (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This bet is pretty simple to me. Karl-Anthony Towns has to stay out of foul trouble. In the last game, Towns finally unleashed. He only recorded 1 foul in the 1st quarter, played all 12 minutes, and scored 10 points. This is exactly the Towns we need to cash this prop. Towns went on to score 33 points in a 1-point win.
Towns knows how important he is to this Timberwolves team. During the 1st quarter of Saturday’s game, Memphis forward Brandon Clarke went up for a dunk right near Towns. Towns, already with 1 foul, moved completely out of the way and let Clarke jam it through. I think this is a telling sign of what to expect tonight. Towns will not let himself pick up “dumb” fouls and jeopardize his team from winning the most important game of his career.
Towns has gone over this line in 71% of games this season when playing at least 35 minutes. In both games this series that he has stayed out of foul trouble, Towns has scored 29 and 33 points. I expect another gem for the greatest shooting big man of all time.
Check out our full preview for Grizzlies vs Timberwolves
Brandon Ingram (NOP) over 37.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Brandon Ingram is turning into a superstar in front of our eyes. Ingram was already on the cusp of making that leap from star to franchise player, but he has proven that he is more than capable of leading a team to a playoff series win. Ingram is shooting 50% from the field in this series and has taken 10 free-throw attempts in each of the last 2 games. His midrange shot is on fire and he is more than willing to drive to the basket against Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton.
The Suns have one of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Mikal Bridges. That does not seem to faze Ingram. The Duke product has scored more than 30 points in each of the last 3 games and is splitting point-guard duties with veteran CJ McCollum. Ingram is averaging 11.5 assist opportunities per game in this series and head coach Willie Green is surrounding Ingram with set-shooters to knock down shots.
I expect Ingram to show out in the most important game of his career and do all he can to take a 3-2 series lead against the best team in the league.
Check out our full preview for Pelicans vs Suns
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