JutPicks
Show Bio
Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself in being as transparent as they come. My NBA record from last season and this season are listed in my bio alongside my MLB and NFL record. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Thursday.
Will Barton (DEN) over 15.5 points (-110)
Line available at FanDuel SportsBook at time of publishing.
Barton has been the Nuggets’ 2nd best player all season long. He gets overshadowed by presumed MVP Nikola Jokic but, Barton has put together a solid year. He is averaging 14.6 points per game but has heated up recently. He has scored at least 16 points in 7 of his last 10 including 24 in Game 1 of this 1st round series versus the Golden State Warriors.
Denver needs somebody other than Jokic to step up tonight. The series is already 2-0 in favor of the Warriors and the Nuggets can kiss away a deep playoff run if they go down 0-3. All of the attention will be on Jokic tonight. In the post, in transition, and even when he catches the ball above the arc. Barton is the guy that Denver desperately needs to create his shot and give them a fighting chance in this series.
There is no reason Barton should not play less than 32 minutes tonight. On the season, when he plays at least 32 minutes, he has cashed this prop in 65% of games. I expect Denver to look for Barton early to give them a much-needed spark.
Check out our full preview for Nuggets vs Warriors
Reggie Bullock (DAL) over 10.5 points (+102)
Line available at FanDuel SportsBook at time of publishing.
Bullock is having himself a great series. He is playing upwards of 40 minutes per game because of his 3-point shooting ability and tenacious defense. Superstar Luka Doncic is a game-time decision tonight and that will dictate the game immensely. Doncic will create a ton of attention off the pick-and-roll and Bullock will be patiently waiting in the corner for his 3-point shot. Even if Doncic does not play, Jalen Brunson is more than capable of creating open looks for Bullock.
I expect the Dallas Mavericks to go smaller than usual and have all 5 players on the court capable of knocking down 3-pointers. The Mavericks’ main goal is to draw Rudy Gobert away from the basket so Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie can drive to the basket.
Bullock has played back-to-back 40-minute games and got a much-needed 2 days rest. I expect Bullock to log another 35+ minutes on Thursday. In games where he sees those minutes, Bullock is over this line in 11/14 contests and in both games to start the series.
Check out our full preview for Mavericks vs Jazz
Patrick Beverley (MIN) under 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120)
Line available at FanDuel SportsBook at time of publishing.
Patrick Beverley is well known as one of the most tenacious guards in the league. He gets under the skin of superstar players and makes their job of scoring the ball a nightmare. This comes with a price though. Even though referees tend to let players get away with ticky-tac fouls, Beverley could play himself into foul trouble.
We are banking on Beverley not knocking down three-pointers tonight. He will let young stars, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and D’Angelo Russell control the offense. Beverley has not taken more than 10 shots in a game since the middle of March and I do not see that changing tonight. He knows his role is to be a pest on defense and to be able to knock down open shots if he gets the opportunity.
Beverly’s assist and rebounding numbers are slightly down as of late compared to what he averages on the season. Minnesota plays at one of the fastest paces’ in the league but has to look to slow down the game especially if the Memphis Grizzlies are going to play a small-ball lineup without Steven Adams.
This bet will be a sweat. Beverley averages 18 points, rebounds, and assists on the season but has only eclipsed this line in 34% of games. If Ja Morant can take Beverley off the dribble and get him into early foul trouble, we could be looking at a winner here.
Check out our full preview for Timberwolves vs Grizzlies
Pickswise is the home of free NBA Picks and NBA Predictions. Check out the latest NBA Prop Bets and NBA Parlays as well as NBA Best Bets from our NBA experts.
