Louisiana Tech +6.5 over North Texas (-110)
Fading one of the hottest teams in the country is a heck of a way to kick off a betting day!
North Texas is 19-1 since losing to Miami (FL) on November 26th, and the Mean Green have risen to the at-large picture thanks to such a sustained stretch of excellence. That includes a 14-1 record in league play, giving them a three-game lead on UAB and Louisiana Tech in the battle for the C-USA West division crown.
That means this could be a clincher for them, but I like the Bulldogs to keep it close. These teams are simply not that far apart in my eyes, and Louisiana Tech nearly (should have?) won the first meeting back on January 29th. The Bulldogs handled North Texas’ methodical pace – it was the slowest game Louisiana Tech played all year – and held a lead down the stretch. Only Tylor Perry’s heroics allowed North Texas to escape with a win.
That speaks to a larger part of this handicap: as excellent as North Texas is, they are not a team that has blown out their best competition. Here are their margins of victory against KenPom top 150 opponents: Drake by 3, Wichita St. by 10, Middle Tennessee by 7, Western Kentucky by 5, Louisiana Tech by 1, FAU by 3, UAB by 1. They win close games!
Obviously, these Bulldogs are already on that list, losing the aforementioned gut-wrenching game in Ruston after leading by six with 2:30 remaining. Even if Louisiana Tech cannot get revenge by winning outright, I doubt they get run off the floor.
I would bet this one all the way down to +5 – I just do not see North Texas crushing a well-coached team like Louisiana Tech.
St. Bonaventure -5.5 over Saint Joseph’s (-110)
Like North Texas, St. Bonaventure is lurking in the bubble picture after winning six straight games. Unfortunately, these Bonnies are in worse shape than the Mean Green.
That means St. Bonaventure needs wins – and emphatic ones at that. Mark Schmidt’s team has apparently gotten that message loud and clear, having won their previous three games by 12, 26, and 18. All three were at home, and leaving Olean certainly ups the difficulty meter, but this veteran team looks dialed in at the right time.
Saint Joseph’s is talented and has trended up this season, but when focused, the Bonnies are on a different level. The Bonnies have multiple strong wings to throw at Jordan Hall, the Hawks’ linchpin. Thanks to shot-swatting menace Osun Osunniyi, St. Bonaventure is also one of the few A-10 teams that can combat Saint Joseph’s size in the paint.
The Bonnies’ five senior starters tasted the NCAA Tournament last year. I think they know what it takes to get there again, and that’s a few more blowout wins. I would lay up to -7 with the Bonnies on Saturday.
Seattle -4.5 over Dixie State (-110)
I’m playing the numbers a little bit here. Seattle is a terrific shooting team, but that has not been the case in the last two games (both losses). Against New Mexico State last Saturday night, Seattle shot 7-of-31 (22.6%) from beyond the arc. On Thursday, Seattle went 7-of-30 (23.3%) from deep.
For a team that was shooting 35.5% from 3P range prior to those contests, those feel like outliers. The prolific trio of Darrion Trammell, Riley Grigsby, and Cameron Tyson is simply too lethal to stay bottled up for a third straight game.
This is also a categorically better matchup for the Redhawks. Both UVU and NMSU are enormous and physical, a clear weakness of this guard-driven Seattle team. Dixie State does not have the same kind of bruisers capable of taking advantage of the soft Seattle interior.
That also applies on the perimeter, where Dixie State lacks the length to contest Seattle’s jump shots with the same intensity as UVU and NMSU. That should help the previously referenced 3P shooting.
Seattle is also still (barely) in the mix for the WAC title. The Redhawks sit two games back of New Mexico State with three games to play, and if they can win out against a relatively tame schedule, they could salvage a split.
As far as 48-hour turnarounds in the WAC go, the travel here is not awful. Seattle is going from northern Utah to the southern part of the state. I have made that drive – it’s not bad at all! Couple that with the spot and the matchup, and I would lay up to -7 with Seattle here.
Oregon -2 over USC
Tom Izzo gets the attention as a coaching maestro in March, but for my money, Dana Altman has taken that crown. Granted, this game will still be in February, but after his Oregon Ducks handled UCLA on Thursday, it looks like the Altman surge has begun once again.
Make no mistake about it: the Ducks need this one. They sit right along the cut-line in many bracketologists’ projections (Joe Lunardi of ESPN has them as his fifth team out). Oregon has already beaten USC, and completing a season sweep could be the victory that vaults the Ducks into the field of 68.
The first win unveiled some clear matchup edges for the Ducks.
Altman loves to change defenses, mixing in some zone looks that often take away the rim. USC struggled to score in the first half, mustering just 29 points against those morphing looks, and Oregon accelerated out to a 16-point lead at the break. Between N’Faly Dante and Franck Kepnang, Oregon has the pieces at center to battle USC’s greatest asset – towering interior size.
Oregon also scored at will in that one. Sure, the 47.6% conversion rate from deep helped, but the Ducks also only had 10 turnovers and shot 51.4% inside the arc. That is well above USC’s season average on defense of 40.6%, the second-best mark in the entire country.
Additionally, Boogie Ellis and Isaiah White missed USC’s game at Oregon State on Thursday. Both are key pieces, especially Ellis. He is USC’s best creator and quickest guard, and if he cannot play, Jacob Young and De’Vion Harmon could have big games for Oregon.
Again, this is a perfect marriage of matchup, spot, and roster availability, so I would take Oregon up to -3 here.
Make sure you read the rest of our picks for Wednesday’s big college basketball matchups!
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