Ahaan Rungta
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Ladies and gentlemen, we have a series on our hands. The Heat pulled off a shock win over the Nuggets in Game 2 to even things up as things switch to Miami, and now the pressure is on Denver to get a road win otherwise Jimmy Butler and the Heat will do what many people didn’t think was possible. Can Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets regain the advantage or will Miami take the series lead? Let’s get into the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions for Game 3 between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.
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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat spread, odds & betting lines
Odds available with FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point spread: Nuggets -2.5, Heat +2.5
Total points over/under: 214.5 points
Money line odds: Nuggets -142, Heat +120
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat expert picks
Nuggets vs Heat money line pick: Nuggets ML (-142)
It was a tale of two gamescripts for these teams in the first two games of the 2023 NBA Finals in Denver. In Game 1, the Nuggets were on 7 days of rest advantage and they came out firing from three, shooting 46% from deep. Meanwhile, the Heat were flat-footed on both ends of the floor and showcased a brickfest, posting a 23.5% performance from deep, their second-worst in a first half in these playoffs. Miami inched a little closer in that game to give Denver a scare but the transition to altitude was clearly too much to make it overly interesting. In Game 2, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra did what he does best in adjusting well to losses. The Heat went up by double digits in the first quarter, heavily due to a huge bounceback shooting performance by the Heat, led by Max Strus, who drained 4 threes in the opening quarter. They also came out with an aggressive defense that took Denver’s playmakers completely out of the equation and turned Nikola Jokic into a scorer the whole night. Jokic finished with 41 points and despite holding a double-digit lead in the final minutes of the third quarter, Miami stormed back with clutch stops on Jamal Murray and timely buckets of their own in the fourth quarter to even the series.
The keys that the Nuggets should take away from that game were summarized well by head coach Mike Malone in the post-game press conference, where he called out the lack of hustle, discipline and intent on both sides of the floor. This included Kentavious Caldwell-Pope committing reckless fouls, Aaron Gordon failing to fight through screens on defense and Michael Porter Jr. making poor decisions on both ends, which got him benched. I expect Denver to take care of those mental lapses as they have frequently this season. They were 19-13 against the spread after a loss in the regular season, the second-best cover rate in the NBA. The Heat were among the league leaders in clutch games and I expect this one to be a similar battle, which is why I will pay the juice with the moneyline instead of taking the points. However, unless Jimmy Butler proves that his ankle is healthier and will allow him to take over a game offensively, it’s fair to trust the Nuggets to clean up their act and extend their streak of 3 straight road games covering against the spread, and by extension, winning this game to go up 2-1 in a series they were heavily favored for.
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Nuggets vs Heat over/under total pick: Under 214.5 points (-112)
The Nuggets failed to adjust to Erik Spoelstra’s mixture of defenses in Game 2. However, they also shot themselves in the foot by committing more turnovers and being lackadaisical on defense, allowing the Heat to take 10 wide-open threes and go 50% on them.
Besides the Nuggets cleaning up those mistakes, I expect both teams to struggle in transition against lengthy, athletic defenders, and instead attempt to produce offense via the half-court. That’s bad news for those betting on pace. In the regular season, both teams ranked in the bottom 7 in the NBA in PACE and both numbers have gone down further in the playoffs. Couple that approach with some regression to the mean shooting from three and we have ourselves plenty of reasons to back the under. Despite the teams combining for 38.4% from three in Game 2, they managed just 219 total points.
Lock in our Nuggets vs Heat Same Game Parlay — we cashed our Game 2 SGP at +529 odds!
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