The Denver Nuggets have recorded dominant showings in Game 1 and Game 3 of the NBA Finals, so the Miami Heat will be hoping the pattern continues and they can get back on level terms by winning Game 4 at home on Friday (8:30 pm ET, ABC).
The Heat have responded well to adversity in the playoffs this year but they will need a better effort than they managed in their opening home game on Wednesday, which ended in a 109-94 defeat. Let’s get into the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions for Game 4 between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.
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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Nuggets -3, Heat +3.5
Total points over/under: 210.5 points
Money line odds: Nuggets -152, Heat +140
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat expert picks
Nuggets vs Heat money line pick: Heat ML (+140, Caesars)
The Nuggets will be feeling good about themselves after winning Game 3 on Wednesday to go up 2-1 in the NBA Finals. Teams that win Game 3 of the NBA Finals have won the series 67% of the time, so now they have that working for them. History was made in Wednesday’s win as we saw two teammates with 30+ point triple-doubles in the same game for the first time, regardless of whether it was the regular season or postseason. Nikola Jokic dominated with 32 points, 21 rebounds and 10 dimes, while Jamal Murray added 34 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. The Nuggets look unstoppable at the moment, and even when shooting just 5-for-18 from three they won with ease. Most people will say a win in Game 4 would mean this series will end next Monday when we get back to Denver.
As crazy as it sounds, losing Game 3 isn’t the end of the world for the Heat. They’ve been counted out many times in this postseason, so this is nothing new to them. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were their only productive players on Wednesday as they shot just 37% from the field as a team, and that’s just not going to do it at this stage. Once again their role players disappointed and only Caleb Martin scored in double figures alongside Butler and Adebayo. Miami was also outrebounded by 25, so that’s definitely something they’ll need to address on Friday. Following Wednesday’s loss, the Heat are now just 1-8 SU/ATS in the last 9 meetings with the Nuggets. They’ve also failed to cover the spread in the last 5 games played in South Beach against them. Miami is on the brink in Game 4, there’s really no doubt about that. If the Heat don’t wake up, it could be game over next Monday, but I’m not ready to give up on this team just yet. I still believe head coach Erik Spoelstra has something up his sleeve. I’ll take the Heat to win Game 4 at home.
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Nuggets vs Heat over/under total pick: Over 210.5 points (-110, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars)
The projected total continues to fall as this series progresses. After we saw another under cash in Game 3, that number is now down to just 210.5 points, which is a significant drop-off from the 219 we saw in the series opener. The Heat couldn’t buy a bucket consistently in Wednesday’s game, and a higher-scoring outcome would benefit them more here, but the question is do they have enough left in the tank to pull off something like that? There’s a good chance Tyler Herro could be activated as he was pretty close to returning to the lineup in Game 3 and with the series being at a turning point the Heat really have no other choice but to call him up.
Making Nikola Jokic a scorer instead of a playmaker would also benefit them, so I’m expecting them to focus more a bit on that aspect of their defense. I think Game 4 is headed towards a similar outcome as Game 2, and if Miami wins it should be in a high-scoring game. The total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams, and I’ll go for it once again in Friday’s game.
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