Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Wednesday night in the NBA is upon us and we have a lot to look forward to. The headline for tonight: Kevin Durant is expected to make his Phoenix Suns debut against the Charlotte Hornets. The Bulls, Nets, Lakers, Bucks, Rockets, Thunder, Grizzlies and Trailblazers are all on back-to-backs, so injury reports are key to betting tonight’s slate. Other key matchups include Cavaliers and Celtics and 76ers vs Heat.
We are officially in March and roughly 20 games for each team remain in the regular season, with a lot of jockeying for playoff spots still in the mix.
Here are my best player props for today’s slate.
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Wendell Carter (ORL) Over 8.5 rebounds (-104)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Carter has hit this line in 3 straight games and gets the Bucks on a back-to-back. Despite not playing against Milwaukee at all this season, he hit this mark in 3 of 4 last year against the Bucks. This season he is averaging an incredible 15 rebound chances per game — which leads the team — and 16.2 chances over the last 10 games. 1U.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) Over 10.5 rebounds (-105)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Allen gets a favorable matchup tonight against a Celtics team that is slightly undersized in the frontcourt. Cleveland does not have the personnel to match Boston’s small ball, so we’ll see many situations where Allen is matched up solely on Al Horford or Robert Williams — which should be an easy win. Boston shoots the highest percentage of shots in the league at midrange and the 3rd highest from 3, giving Allen plenty of opportunities to grab rebounds with the floor spread. He has hit this number in both games this season against the Celtics and is averaging 17.6 rebound chances per game on 33 minutes. 1U.
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Dorian Finney-Smith (BKL) Over 13.5 points + rebounds (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
A lot of my plays are based on certain data sets and statistically backed, but this one is really on feel. Finney-Smith has played 29+ minutes in 5 of 7 games as a member of the Nets, 1 of which against the Knicks. He has hit this line in a modest 3 of 7, but I really like him tonight for his ability to matchup with the Knicks on paper. He is often drawing the toughest assignment defensively every night and tonight will be a mixture of Julius Randle and RJ Barrett depending on the possession. If he sees 30 minutes or more, this line becomes extremely attractive. He has topped 6+ rebounds in 2 of the last 3 and is becoming more involved offensively of late. DFS is averaging 9.7 ppg on a back-to-back — his second highest mark when considering rest splits. 0.5U.
Kevin Durant (PHO) Over 3.5 assists (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I had to have some action in this game. Durant has hit this line in 74% of games this season and although his workload is uncertain, I like him to integrate himself slowly into the team. Durant will garner a lot of attention by default and finding open guys on the perimeter in Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Damion Lee will be an easier transition than going 0 to 100 in scoring on a new team while returning from injury. The Hornets are giving up the 7th-most APG to opposing PFs over the last 7. I’m treading lightly but feel this is the market for Durant tonight if you’re going to bet him at all. 0.5U.
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