Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have another NBA Wednesday night ahead of us and there are 11 games to sort through. The marquee matchup of the day is Bucks vs Cavaliers in what could be playoff foreshadowing, while there are smaller storylines throughout the slate. Jabari Smith squares off against Paolo Banchero in battle of #1 and #2 overall picks. Luka Doncic and Jason Kidd get to run it back after being ejected last night against the Timberwolves. And the injury riddled Warriors are on a back-to-back against the hottest team in the league right now, the Brooklyn Nets. Currently picking 61% on the NBA season so far for +10U, so let’s keep this focus going.
Check out all of our NBA picks for today
Joel Embiid (PHI) over 10.5 rebounds (+115)
Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The 76ers get the Pistons on a back-to-back at home and it could become ugly. The spread is currently at 11.5 points. Detroit is 4-3 ATS with no rest, so it may be wise to take the points, but I’m going to use that baseline for this rebounds prop and assume the game will be competitive. Embiid has hit this in 4 of his last 5 games (one in OT) and faces one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Detroit over the L7 games allows the 6th most RPG to opposing centers and 5th most RPG overall on the road. The Pistons are shooting the 2nd worst two point FG% on the road, giving Embiid a lot of opportunities to hit this mark.
Jalen Duren has been playing lights out since becoming a starter on December 9th, but after looking through the matchups more closely, he has yet to run into a dominant center of Embiid’s caliber. The closest he’s seen to player of Embiid size is Steven Adams, and while I respect the Big Kiwi, this is night and day. I expect Duren to get his welcome to the NBA moment tonight and Embiid to see 11+ rebounds. 1U
Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) over 17.5 points (-108)
Line available at Fanduel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Bogie was my favorite play for 6th man of the year, but missed a few more games (22) than I had expected. Regardless, he’s averaging 18PPG this season and is a sparkplug for this Hawks team on offense. They’re 2-1 over the last 3 and Bogdanovic has started two straight. He made it clear, he doesn’t care whether he starts, he only focuses on finishing the games. Playing this Bulls team, that is currently in disarray, at home is a great spot for the 30 year old veteran. The Bulls are allowing the 2nd most 3PM per game to opposing SGs and most PPG to SGs over the last 7. He’s scored 28+ in 3/8 games this season and I love him to pick on the 3-guard lineups that Billy Donovan is well-known for.
Alex Caruso will likely be tasked with Trae Young, but the second team is where Bogdanovic will score most of his points. Goran Dragic will be out tonight, but Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White should be easy matchups to take advantage of. I’m certainly adding his 25+ points alt line to our degenerate parlay at +440. For this line, I’ll roll with 1U.
Kyrie Irving (BKL) over 24.5 points (-120)
Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Kyrie has been his best run while wearing a Brooklyn Net uniform over the last 10 games. In that span, the Nets are 9-1, he’s shooting 50% from the field, averaging 27.4PPG, and shooting 43% from 3PT. Tonight, he gets the Golden State Warriors on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. The Warriors this season are allowing the 2nd worst 3P% on the road and are middle of the pack (17th) in defensive efficiency. This number is right below his season average of 26PPG, but it’s most likely due to the potential for a blowout and we’ve seen our fair share these past few weeks in the NBA. I would have pivoted to Kyrie over 2.5 3PM, but the juice is too high for my liking. However, when Kyrie has 3+ 3PM, he hits this line in 8/11 games. Kyrie will pop up in degenerate parlay for sure. 1U
Jerami Grant (POR) under 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-125)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
This line is significantly higher than Grant’s season average of 27 PRA and it’s likely because of a recent performance vs the Thunder where he had one of his better all-around games of the season. Two nights ago, Grant finished with 37 PRA on 55% shooting and 8 rebounds – all well above his season averages. It’s worth mentioning that Grant played a near season high 41:54 min; I expect that number to come down tonight. For the matchup, the Thunder could potentially be getting back Josh Giddey and/or Darius Bazley. Both were involved in shoot around and upgraded to questionable. If both play, Grant will have a much tougher time in the scoring/rebounding column than he did two nights ago. Grant has only hit this in 2 of the L7 games. The injury status of Giddey/Bazley is key to this play, so keep a close eye before locking in. 1U
Degenerate Parlay+6245
- Joel Embiid 12+ Rebounds (+150)
- Kyrie Irving 5+ 3PM (+370)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic 25+ Points (+440)
$5 pays $317
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